# Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 19 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.841Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-07

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 31% / Polymarket 23% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $5.7M

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 10¢ | +1pp | $1.1M | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-portugal-polymarket-0x4f3421fb2daf5cca7430ed8d8132463963081572d75434393a1808fdb8829fe8 |
| Brazil | 8¢ | — | $940K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-brazil-polymarket-0x30d55d8124ee1e12dabe89201badc45669b81dff69e4ce44d961f32878ec178a |
| Netherlands | 4¢ | — | $885K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9be56371f6a29d12769b2f196847ee825b9585ebb8bfa042136be031b081eba1 |
| Germany | 5¢ | −1pp | $809K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-germany-polymarket-0x1595b4818eeb1ea1e0bec5de6f057218e557feee9b405a0e930d290384fa1d16 |
| France | 16¢ | −1pp | $590K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-france-polymarket-0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894 |
| England | 11¢ | — | $558K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-england-polymarket-0x375409bc5eeeff961e82b479caeccc20f33d15738e5bce1186d628aa3d9dfb1f |
| Spain | 16¢ | −1pp | $499K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-spain-polymarket-0x7976b8dbacf9077eb1453a62bcefd6ab2df199acd28aad276ff0d920d6992892 |
| Argentina | 9¢ | +1pp | $253K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-argentina-polymarket-0x0c4cd2055d6ea89354ffddc55d6dbcef9355748112ea952fc925f3db6a5c457f |
| Asia | 3¢ | +1pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/which-continent-will-win-the-world-cup-asia-polymarket-0x60acf099fa9533670907f84fe43948027d33696e159c9b31e5b71e29070c00bc |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | 90¢ | +1pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup-polymarket-0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 |
| France | 66¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-france-polymarket-0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05 |
| Harry Kane | 12¢ | +1pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-kane-lead-fifa-world-cup-in-goals-for-t-kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-hkan |
| Kylian Mbappe | 15¢ | ±0 | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-kylian-mbappe-lead-fifa-world-cup-in-goals-fo-kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-kmba |
| Lamine Yamal | 3¢ | −2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-lead-fifa-world-cup-in-goals-for-kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-lyam |
| Yes | 93¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/iran-to-compete-in-fifa-world-cup-in-2026-yes-kalshi-kxwciran-26 |
| Netherlands | 54¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9ad73ff7534b1051e2dad167a0b1617ae20f64f20770ae8bf89a59a7a7290669 |
| Japan | 28¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-japan-polymarket-0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801 |
| Sweden | 14¢ | ±0 | $478 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-sweden-polymarket-0x8bd82f13e633448c85e5c79428afcbf2b15bdb1e3c9f6ddbea62cb164f6fb23e |
| Tunisia | 6¢ | −1pp | $227 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-f-winner-tunisia-polymarket-0xeb021bae39c99ec2915555e9463bc6b9f14606da6257adab38ee9eb47b3ee17b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 34 |
| 2026-05-25 | 37 |
| 2026-06-01 | 36 |
| 2026-06-08 | 96 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Yes +5pp 87→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Yes +3pp 92→95¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=world-cup-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.