# World Cup Group G Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-group-g-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Belgium at 63%
- Runner-up: Egypt at 26%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 63¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-belgium-polymarket-0x1e285f49c483634426c54834f840f6bfe780e0039eb0ad31357b936600b7c2d2 |
| Egypt | 26¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-egypt-polymarket-0xd5f291e4d2dfc44a42ee0eb1d83f2e42a90ce943a71f643cadf4e98c5a6ec3eb |
| Iran | 7¢ | −3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-iran-polymarket-0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290 |
| New Zealand | 3¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-g-winner-new-zealand-polymarket-0x6d4e4bf288d8caa229a72a48b985722df1b803e11a9d0d7e9a3fa8275ecccb34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Belgium | Egypt | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 69 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 68 | 19 | 11 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-13 | 71 | 16 | 11 |
| 2026-06-14 | 71 | 17 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 64 | 24 | 10 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 26 | 7 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · Egypt +6pp 17→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Belgium −4pp 71→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Iran −3pp 10→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Belgium −3pp 67→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Belgium finishes first in their World Cup group ahead of three other competitors. Belgium's 68% implied probability reflects expectations based on FIFA rankings, recent performance, and group composition. The main factors supporting this position are Belgium's historical strength and perceived squad quality relative to rivals. Factors that could shift this probability include pre-tournament roster changes, injuries to key players, or updated assessments of opponent capabilities after qualification rounds. The outcome will be determined by the group's matches, which are scheduled during the tournament's group stage. Market participants are pricing in Belgium as the clear favorite, though Egypt at 19% represents meaningful uncertainty about whether Belgium will definitively top the group.

### Key factors

- Belgium's FIFA world ranking and squad depth relative to Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand at the time of group play
- Recent win-loss records and goal differential performance of each team in World Cup qualifying or equivalent tournaments
- Injury status and squad availability for Belgium's key players in the weeks before group-stage matches
- Head-to-head historical records between Belgium and each group opponent in competitive matches
- Egypt's strong domestic league performance and whether they field their strongest available squad for the tournament

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-group-g-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=world-cup-group-g-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.