# World Cup Group I Winner

> France leads at 66%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-group-i-winner
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.287Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: France at 66%
- Runner-up: Norway at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 66¢ | −1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-france-polymarket-0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05 |
| Norway | 24¢ | +1pp | $663 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-norway-polymarket-0x9da323e862ca9e583ae67a5130c8c79960cf173e7d76165cefd4ecd7f9333b90 |
| Senegal | 11¢ | ±0 | $591 | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-group-i-winner-senegal-polymarket-0x0174a32ce50b11c793acc6a643e1d583c99fa52016a319eab4052f9a59f4eb18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Norway | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-10 | 71 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 70 | — | — |
| 2026-05-24 | — | 24 | 9 |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 23 | 10 |
| 2026-06-01 | 68 | 24 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-07 | 66 | 25 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that France will win their World Cup Group I match. At 69%, traders are pricing France as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming, with Norway as the second choice at 22%. The current price likely reflects France's recent performance, squad strength, and tournament history versus group opponents. The main factors supporting France's position are their ranking and recent results; factors that could shift the probability include team roster changes, injuries to key players, or Norway's recent form. The probability will move significantly once matches are played and actual results emerge, with the outcome definitively resolved after Group I matches conclude.

### Key factors

- France's current FIFA ranking and head-to-head historical record against Norway and other Group I opponents
- Recent injury status or player absences for France's squad, which could materially weaken their competitive position
- Norway's recent form in qualification and friendly matches leading into the tournament
- The specific match scheduling and venue conditions that could advantage or disadvantage either team
- Trading volume concentration—the France contract has 3.5x higher 24-hour volume ($2,836) than the Norway contract, potentially indicating broader market confidence or liquidity effects rather than new information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-group-i-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=world-cup-group-i-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.