# World Cup Winner

> Portugal leads at 10%, runner-up 8% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-winner
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.117Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-20

## Headline

- Leader: Portugal at 10%
- Runner-up: Brazil at 8%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4.1M

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 10¢ | +1pp | $993K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-portugal-polymarket-0x4f3421fb2daf5cca7430ed8d8132463963081572d75434393a1808fdb8829fe8 |
| Brazil | 8¢ | — | $932K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-brazil-polymarket-0x30d55d8124ee1e12dabe89201badc45669b81dff69e4ce44d961f32878ec178a |
| Netherlands | 4¢ | — | $940K | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9be56371f6a29d12769b2f196847ee825b9585ebb8bfa042136be031b081eba1 |
| Norway | 3¢ | — | $1.2M | polymarket | /markets/world-cup-winner-norway-polymarket-0x7b52405ad0e0d31bfe970940b67d77f24ecedeab8a2361c11148c02a006e325c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Portugal | Brazil | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 8 | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 11 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | 9 | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 10 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 10 | — | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Spain and France are tied as the joint favorites at 17% each in the 2026 World Cup winner market, meaning traders estimate roughly a 1-in-6 chance either team captures the tournament. This probability reflects expectations about each nation's squad depth, recent competitive performance, and fitness heading into the tournament scheduled for June-July 2026. Key drivers include roster composition changes, injury status of star players in the months before competition, and head-to-head matchup positioning within tournament brackets. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the tournament draw and final squad announcements, typically released weeks before play begins, which will clarify team strength and path-to-victory scenarios. Until then, market prices may shift on international friendly results and player injury updates that signal team readiness.

### Key factors

- Spain and France both priced at 17¢, while Portugal trails at 10¢ and Germany at 5¢, indicating modest differentiation among traditional powerhouses
- Market shows high uncertainty: the combined probability of all nine contracts is well under 100¢, suggesting traders assign meaningful odds to long-shot outcomes not listed in top contracts
- Portugal's 10¢ price reflects a lower perceived win probability despite recent tournament success, suggesting doubts about squad renewal or sustainability
- The 2026 World Cup is scheduled for June-July 2026, with squad announcements and tournament draw occurring in the months before that serve as near-term information events
- High 24-hour volume across Spain (441k), France (374k), Portugal (542k), and Norway (469k) contracts indicates active trader disagreement on relative team strength

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/world-cup-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=world-cup-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.