# Will Nathan Florence win the Wave of the Winter

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 5 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wotw
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.850Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barron Mamiya | 10¢ | +5pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-barron-mamiya-win-the-wave-of-the-winter-barr-kalshi-kxwotw-26-barr |
| John John Florence | 5¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-john-florence-win-the-wave-of-the-winter-kalshi-kxwotw-26-john |
| Shane Dorian | 18¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shane-dorian-win-the-wave-of-the-winter-shane-kalshi-kxwotw-26-shan |
| Nathan Florence | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nathan-florence-win-the-wave-of-the-winter-na-kalshi-kxwotw-26-nath |
| Balaram Stack | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-balaram-stack-win-the-wave-of-the-winter-bala-kalshi-kxwotw-26-bala |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 10 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Barron Mamiya +5pp 12→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Balaram Stack +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Barron Mamiya −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · John John Florence −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 9% probability indicates markets assess Nathan Florence has roughly a 1-in-11 chance of winning the Wave of the Winter award in 2026. The low odds likely reflect competitive depth in professional surfing, where multiple elite athletes compete across variable ocean conditions throughout the season. Factors supporting higher odds would include consistent high placements in major competitions or favorable swell patterns at key events. The main catalyst determining this probability will be results from major surfing competitions as they occur throughout the winter season, with year-end award voting providing final resolution.

### Key factors

- Nathan Florence's historical placement rates in Wave of the Winter voting compared to current year competition field
- Volume and consistency of high-scoring waves Florence produces relative to competing professional surfers
- Ocean swell patterns and scheduling of major surfing events during the winter period affecting opportunity for standout performances
- Voting methodology for Wave of the Winter award and any changes to judge panels or criteria for 2026
- Results from significant competitions held prior to and during the winter season that influence year-end voting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wotw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wotw

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.