# Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wrexham-afc-vs-middlesbrough-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $467

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 26 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the current market expectation for a specific outcome in an upcoming Wrexham AFC versus Middlesbrough FC match. The assessment is grounded in the teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings. Key drivers of this probability level include each team's recent performance trajectory, injuries or roster changes, and home-field advantages. The probability will likely shift as match day approaches and updated team information becomes available, particularly any announcements regarding player availability or tactical adjustments. The resolution will occur on the scheduled match date when the final result is determined.

### Key factors

- Wrexham and Middlesbrough's points tallies and recent win-loss records in their current league season
- Historical head-to-head outcomes between these two teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- Confirmed player absences, injuries, or suspensions affecting either team's lineup strength
- Home venue advantage and historical performance differential between teams at their respective grounds
- Current league positions and playoff/promotion implications that may affect motivation or risk tolerance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wrexham-afc-vs-middlesbrough-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wrexham-afc-vs-middlesbrough-fc-more-markets

## License

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