# England vs India Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 16 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wt20match
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.072Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 72¢ | +6pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-new-zealand-winner-england-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun271330nzleng-eng |
| India | 36¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/australia-vs-india-winner-india-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun280930indaus-ind |
| Pakistan | 75¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/pakistan-vs-netherlands-winner-pakistan-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270530nedpak-pak |
| Netherlands | 23¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/pakistan-vs-netherlands-winner-netherlands-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270530nedpak-ned |
| Australia | 64¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/australia-vs-india-winner-australia-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun280930indaus-aus |
| West Indies | 75¢ | +25pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/west-indies-vs-ireland-winner-west-indies-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270930irlwin-win |
| New Zealand | 25¢ | +6pp | $783 | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-new-zealand-winner-new-zealand-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun271330nzleng-nzl |
| South Africa | 65¢ | +33pp | $540 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-vs-bangladesh-winner-south-africa-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun280530banrsa-rsa |
| Ireland | 15¢ | −7pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/west-indies-vs-ireland-winner-ireland-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270930irlwin-irl |
| Norway | 11¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/czechia-vs-norway-winner-norway-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270500norcze-nor |
| Luxembourg | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/norway-vs-luxembourg-winner-luxembourg-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270900luxnor-lux |
| Norway | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/norway-vs-luxembourg-winner-norway-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270900luxnor-nor |
| Derbyshire Falcons | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/derbyshire-falcons-vs-gloucestershire-winner-derby-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270930gloder-der |
| Gloucestershire | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/derbyshire-falcons-vs-gloucestershire-winner-glouc-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun270930gloder-glo |
| Czechia | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luxembourg-vs-czechia-winner-czechia-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun280430czelux-cze |
| Luxembourg | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luxembourg-vs-czechia-winner-luxembourg-kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun280430czelux-lux |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 3 |
| 2026-06-19 | 12 |
| 2026-06-25 | 26 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · West Indies +56pp 8→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · England +46pp 14→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · South Africa +43pp 14→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · South Africa +33pp 53→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · West Indies +25pp 47→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects a prediction that England will defeat India in an upcoming match. The probability reflects India's recent strong performance across formats, with their 62-cent valuation in a separate India vs South Africa market suggesting market confidence in their current form. England's lower probability reflects recent inconsistency, though their 77-cent valuation against Scotland indicates they remain competitive against certain opponents. The primary factors influencing this probability are each team's recent match results, player fitness and availability, and head-to-head record in relevant conditions. Resolution depends on the scheduled England vs India match being completed as scheduled, with the outcome determined by standard cricket rules.

### Key factors

- India's current rating against South Africa (62 cents) suggests the market views them as strong favorites in bilateral matchups
- England's rating against Scotland (77 cents) indicates competitive but not dominant form relative to other strong teams
- The 35% probability implies a significant gap in expected performance between the two teams based on recent playing patterns
- Match-specific factors like venue conditions, recent team injuries, or last-minute lineup changes would directly affect the probability if disclosed
- The absence of comparable historical pricing data prevents analysis of whether this probability represents movement from prior expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wt20match
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wt20match

## License

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