# Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 5 contracts — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wt20worldcup
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:49.202Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-20

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $31K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 4¢ | +2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-west-indies-win-the-womens-t20-world-cup-west-kalshi-kxwt20worldcup-26-wi |
| India | 10¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-india-win-the-womens-t20-world-cup-india-kalshi-kxwt20worldcup-26-ind |
| South Africa | 9¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-win-the-womens-t20-world-cup-sou-kalshi-kxwt20worldcup-26-rsa |
| England | 21¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-england-win-the-womens-t20-world-cup-england-kalshi-kxwt20worldcup-26-eng |
| Australia | 54¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-win-the-womens-t20-world-cup-austra-kalshi-kxwt20worldcup-26-aus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 19 |
| 2026-06-11 | 24 |
| 2026-06-18 | 20 |
| 2026-06-25 | 20 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · India −4pp 19→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Australia +4pp 54→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · India −3pp 15→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · South Africa +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Australia +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Australia will win the next Women's T20 World Cup. Australia is currently rated third-favorite behind India (30¢) and roughly equal with other strong contenders. The relatively modest probability reflects that women's T20 cricket is competitive across multiple nations, with several teams capable of winning on any given tournament. Australia's actual chances depend on squad depth, form leading into the tournament, and performance in group stages. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Australia can maintain recent performance levels or decline relative to rival nations. The next Women's T20 World Cup—scheduled for 2026—will definitively resolve this contract when the tournament concludes. Market movement would likely accelerate as the tournament approaches and team lineups are announced.

### Key factors

- Australia's recent T20 World Cup win rate and head-to-head records against India and other top competitors in the lead-up period
- Squad availability and player form during the 2026 tournament window, including injuries to key players
- Tournament draw and group stage composition, which determines Australia's path to knockout matches
- India's simultaneous market probability of 30% suggests the field view India as slight favorites, with Australia rated third among major contenders
- The contract volumes are currently zero, indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current team form or recent bilateral series results

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wt20worldcup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wt20worldcup

## License

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