# Will Jessica Pegula win the WTA Rome

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wta
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.999Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-11

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $577

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 30¢ | −3pp | $245 | kalshi | /markets/will-aryna-sabalenka-win-the-wta-rome-aryna-sabale-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-sab |
| Elena Rybakina | 14¢ | — | $143 | kalshi | /markets/will-elena-rybakina-win-the-wta-rome-elena-rybakin-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-ryb |
| Coco Gauff | 9¢ | — | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-coco-gauff-win-the-wta-rome-coco-gauff-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-gau |
| Iga Swiatek | 8¢ | +3pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-iga-swiatek-win-the-wta-rome-iga-swiatek-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-swi |
| Mirra Andreeva | 3¢ | — | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-mirra-andreeva-win-the-wta-rome-mirra-andreev-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-and |
| Hailey Baptiste | 6¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-hailey-baptiste-win-the-wta-rome-hailey-bapti-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-bap |
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leylah-annie-fernandez-win-the-wta-rome-leyla-kalshi-kxwta-26rome-fer |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 15 |
| 2026-05-09 | 5 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Aryna Sabalenka −3pp 33→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Iga Swiatek +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 13% probability means the market estimates Jessica Pegula has roughly a one-in-eight chance of winning the 2026 WTA Rome tournament. The market is pricing her below several other top contenders—Aryna Sabalenka leads at 30%, followed by Elena Rybakina at 14%—reflecting her historical performance at clay-court events and current ranking relative to the field. Pegula's probability would rise or fall based on her results in the weeks leading up to Rome and her draw positioning within the bracket. The tournament itself, scheduled to begin soon, will resolve this market as matches are played and eliminated players are removed from contention. Until the event concludes, uncertainty remains around seeding, court conditions, and head-to-head matchups that could favor or disadvantage Pegula.

### Key factors

- Sabalenka's 30% probability exceeds Pegula's by more than 2:1, suggesting the market views Sabalenka as a significantly stronger clay-court threat
- Pegula's 13% positions her below Rybakina (14%) and well below the top seed Sabalenka, indicating questions about her clay-court form relative to the field
- The tournament draw and Pegula's bracket positioning could create favorable or unfavorable matchup sequences that materially affect her path to the final
- Pegula's recent match results against top-10 clay-court players in the weeks before Rome would provide concrete data on her current fitness and performance
- Weather and court conditions at Rome during tournament play could disproportionately favor or disadvantage her playing style compared to rivals

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wta
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wta

## License

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