# Will Mirra Andreeva win the Mirra Andreeva vs Maja Chwalinska match by a set score of 2-0

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtaexactmatch
Updated: 2026-06-06T07:20:12.449Z
Category: sports
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirra Andreeva wins 2-0 | 57¢ | +16pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-mirra-andreeva-win-the-mirra-andreeva-vs-maja-kalshi-kxwtaexactmatch-26jun06andchw-and20 |
| Maja Chwalinska wins 2-1 | 14¢ | +4pp | $658 | kalshi | /markets/will-maja-chwalinska-win-the-mirra-andreeva-vs-maj-kalshi-kxwtaexactmatch-26jun06andchw-chw21 |
| Mirra Andreeva wins 2-1 | 21¢ | +3pp | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-mirra-andreeva-win-the-mirra-andreeva-vs-maja-kalshi-kxwtaexactmatch-26jun06andchw-and21 |
| Maja Chwalinska wins 2-0 | 10¢ | — | $141 | kalshi | /markets/will-maja-chwalinska-win-the-mirra-andreeva-vs-maj-kalshi-kxwtaexactmatch-26jun06andchw-chw20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 23 |
| 2026-06-05 | 26 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Mirra Andreeva wins 2-0 +16pp 41→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Maja Chwalinska wins 2-1 +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Mirra Andreeva wins 2-1 +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Mirra Andreeva will defeat Maja Chwalinska by winning the first two sets without dropping a set. The 25% estimate suggests markets view this as a meaningful possibility but not the most likely outcome—traders assign roughly 57% to an Andreeva 2-0 victory based on contract pricing, with alternative scenarios like Chwalinska winning 2-1 (14%) or Andreeva winning 2-1 (21%) splitting the remaining probability. The probability reflects relative playing strength, recent form, and head-to-head history between the two players. A straight-sets win requires dominant performance rather than a competitive three-set match, making this outcome more specific than simply picking a winner. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty once played.

### Key factors

- Recent ATP/WTA rankings and seeding differential between Andreeva and Chwalinska establish baseline competitive gaps
- Head-to-head record and performance patterns in previous meetings, if any, directly indicate stylistic matchups
- Surface type and venue conditions of the scheduled match (hard court, clay, grass) favor different playing styles and influence set-win probabilities
- Recent form and injury status of both players in the weeks leading up to the match affect confidence in dominant performance
- Contractual pricing shows markets assign 57% to the 2-0 outcome specifically, implying 43% probability that the match goes to at least three sets regardless of winner

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtaexactmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtaexactmatch

## License

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