# Will Iga Swiatek qualify for the WTA Singles Finals Riyadh

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 12 contracts — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtafinalsqual
Updated: 2026-08-24T19:20:51.913Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-08

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marta Kostyuk | 16¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-marta-kostyuk-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-fin-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-kos |
| Mirra Andreeva | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mirra-andreeva-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-fi-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-and |
| Coco Gauff | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coco-gauff-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-finals-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-gau |
| Iva Jovic | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iva-jovic-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-finals-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-jov |
| Karolina Muchova | 6¢ | −21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-karolina-muchova-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-muc |
| Emma Navarro | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emma-navarro-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-fina-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-nav |
| Naomi Osaka | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-naomi-osaka-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-final-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-osa |
| Jessica Pegula | 75¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jessica-pegula-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-fi-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-peg |
| Elena Rybakina | 96¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elena-rybakina-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-fi-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-ryb |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 93¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aryna-sabalenka-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-f-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-sab |
| Elina Svitolina | 52¢ | +37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elina-svitolina-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-f-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-svi |
| Iga Swiatek | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iga-swiatek-qualify-for-the-wta-singles-final-kalshi-kxwtafinalsqual-26riy-swi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 41 |
| 2026-08-10 | 32 |
| 2026-08-19 | 93 |
| 2026-08-23 | 33 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Karolina Muchova −21pp 25→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Elena Rybakina −12pp 95→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Iga Swiatek −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the estimated chance that Iga Swiatek will finish among the top 8 players in the WTA rankings by the end of 2026 and qualify for the year-end singles finals in Riyadh. The 12% probability reflects significant skepticism about her qualification prospects, likely driven by her recent performance trajectory and consistency relative to top-ranked competitors like Sabalenka and Rybakina. Swiatek's ability to secure enough ranking points across remaining 2026 tournaments will determine qualification. The primary catalyst will be her performance at major events through the second half of the year, with the US Open in late August and subsequent tournaments critically important for accumulating points before the December rankings cutoff.

### Key factors

- Swiatek's current ranking position and distance from the top 8 as of June 2026
- Her historical injury frequency and playing consistency across full seasons
- Point accumulation rate needed relative to competitors also competing for the 8 spots
- Performance record specifically at the major events and high-ranking tournaments remaining in 2026
- The December 2026 WTA year-end ranking cutoff date when finals qualification is finalized

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtafinalsqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtafinalsqual

## License

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