# Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST

> 80 or above leads at 57%, runner-up 51% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 41 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtidiry
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:07.205Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 80 or above at 57%
- Runner-up: 75 or above at 51%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 or above | 57¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-80-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t80 |
| 75 or above | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-75-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t75 |
| 95 or above | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-95-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t95 |
| 85 or above | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-85-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t85 |
| 90 or above | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-90-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t90 |
| 105 or above | 22¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-105-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t105 |
| 110 or above | 22¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-110-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t110 |
| 100 or above | 21¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-100-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t100 |
| 120 or above | 21¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-120-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t120 |
| 115 or above | 5¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-115-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t115 |
| 125 or above | 5¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-wti-oil-be-above-125-on-december-kalshi-kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430-t125 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 80 or above | 75 or above | 95 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 42 | 70 | 60 |
| 2026-05-31 | 33 | 68 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 22 | — | 7 |
| 2026-06-06 | 40 | 50 | 39 |
| 2026-06-08 | 36 | 49 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 85 or above +23pp 6→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · 85 or above +21pp 16→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · 75 or above −19pp 69→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · 80 or above +17pp 23→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 95 or above +17pp 7→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market indicates an estimated 93% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $75 per barrel on December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects expectations that oil prices will remain at or above this relatively modest threshold over the next seven months. Current market pricing suggests traders view a price floor around $75 as highly likely, though there's meaningful uncertainty about higher price levels—contracts for $100+ oil trade at only 43 cents. The probability depends on global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments affecting production, macroeconomic growth expectations, and seasonal patterns heading into year-end. Key uncertainties include OPEC+ production decisions, potential supply disruptions, and whether economic weakness or recession materializes, which would pressure prices downward. The contract ultimately resolves based on the WTI spot price at a specific time on December 31, 2026, making it sensitive to year-end trading patterns and any late-breaking developments affecting energy markets.

### Key factors

- OPEC+ compliance with production quotas through 2026; announced cuts or production increases would directly affect supply and upward or downward price pressure
- Global macroeconomic data and recession indicators between now and December; weaker growth typically reduces oil demand and prices below $75
- Geopolitical events affecting major producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Africa); supply disruptions historically drive prices higher within weeks
- US dollar strength and interest rate expectations; a weaker dollar typically supports higher oil prices while a stronger dollar pressures them downward
- Seasonal demand patterns and inventory levels in Q4 2026; winter heating demand typically supports prices but excess supply can overwhelm seasonal effects

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtidiry
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtidiry
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.