# Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026

> $115.01 or above leads at 32%, runner-up 28% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 18 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimax
Updated: 2026-06-19T14:20:19.213Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: $115.01 or above at 32%
- Runner-up: $125.01 or above at 28%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $48K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115.01 or above | 32¢ | +2pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t115 |
| $125.01 or above | 28¢ | +3pp | $509 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t125 |
| $120.01 or above | 26¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t120 |
| $130.01 or above | 23¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t130 |
| $140.01 or above | 20¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t140 |
| $135.01 or above | 20¢ | +2pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t135 |
| $150.01 or above | 18¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t150 |
| $160.01 or above | 12¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t160 |
| $180.01 or above | 10¢ | −3pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t180 |
| $200.01 or above | 8¢ | ±0 | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimax-26dec31-t200 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $115.01 or above | $125.01 or above | $120.01 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 65 | 51 | 58 |
| 2026-06-05 | 54 | 40 | 48 |
| 2026-06-12 | 47 | 36 | 38 |
| 2026-06-18 | 32 | 26 | 26 |
| 2026-06-19 | 34 | — | 26 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · $115.01 or above −7pp 48→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · $115.01 or above −7pp 36→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · $130.01 or above −7pp 31→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · $140.01 or above −6pp 25→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · $120.01 or above −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 75% probability that crude oil's highest daily settlement price will reach $115.01 or higher by year-end 2026. This threshold sits roughly 13–15% above current price levels, reflecting expectations of modest appreciation over the next eight months. The probability is driven by two competing forces: structural support from OPEC+ production management and geopolitical risk premiums, which push higher; and demand concerns tied to global economic growth forecasts, which weigh lower. Near-term price action matters most—the related contracts show traders split on whether oil will clear $103 by May 4 and $109 by May 8, suggesting uncertainty about immediate direction. Outcomes in Q2 energy data releases, Fed policy moves, and Middle East developments will likely shift this probability meaningfully.

### Key factors

- WTI is currently trading ~$99–$102; reaching $115.01 requires sustained price appreciation of 13–15% over eight months
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance announcements through June and beyond will directly influence supply-side pressure
- Near-term contracts show only 50% probability of clearing $103 by May 4 and 30% probability of $109 by May 8, indicating low conviction on immediate upside
- A $135.01 ceiling contract trades at 46%, suggesting market views anything above the $115 target as lower-probability tail risk
- Demand-side catalysts—central bank policy, recession signals, and economic growth revisions—could reverse the 75% probability if they deteriorate

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtimax
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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