# Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimaxm
Updated: 2026-07-01T13:20:51.042Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: 75.01 or above at 14%
- Runner-up: 76.01 or above at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.01 or above | 14¢ | +2pp | $735 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimaxm-26jun30-t75 |
| 76.01 or above | 9¢ | +2pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimaxm-26jun30-t76 |
| 77.01 or above | 3¢ | +1pp | $850 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimaxm-26jun30-t77 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 75.01 or above | 76.01 or above | 77.01 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 50 | 32 | 32 |
| 2026-06-25 | 19 | 11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 9 | 9 | 4 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 55% chance that crude oil (WTI front-month contract) will reach or exceed $75 per barrel at some point between now and June 30, 2026—just six days away. The current WTI price and recent trading range are the primary inputs: if oil is already trading near or above $75, the probability would reflect that reality; if it's trading significantly below, the market is pricing in a material rally as more likely than not. The main drivers are near-term supply disruptions, geopolitical events, or demand shifts over this narrow timeframe. Since the resolution date is imminent, the outcome depends almost entirely on price movements within the next week, with limited time for major catalysts to shift sentiment materially.

### Key factors

- Current WTI front-month settlement price and distance from $75 threshold as of market close June 24, 2026
- Historical volatility of WTI over 6-day windows and whether intraday trading patterns suggest momentum toward or away from $75
- Related contract odds showing 53% probability for $78 and 54% for $78.50 threshold, indicating market uncertainty about magnitude of required move
- Geopolitical or supply-side news within the final week of June that could trigger short-term price acceleration
- Technical support or resistance levels between current price and $75, and trading volume patterns suggesting conviction in either direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimaxm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtimaxm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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