# Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026

> 79.99 or below leads at 76%, runner-up 60% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimin
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.959Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 79.99 or below at 76%
- Runner-up: 74.99 or below at 60%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.99 or below | 76¢ | −10pp | $606 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t80 |
| 74.99 or below | 60¢ | −3pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t75 |
| 69.99 or below | 47¢ | −1pp | $586 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t70 |
| 64.99 or below | 33¢ | +2pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t65 |
| 59.99 or below | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t60 |
| 54.99 or below | 10¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t55 |
| 49.99 or below | 7¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-wti-front-month-settle-price-reac-kalshi-kxwtimin-26dec31-t50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 79.99 or below | 74.99 or below | 69.99 or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 | 31 | 18 |
| 2026-04-24 | 68 | 61 | 45 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 51 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 45 | 43 |
| 2026-05-07 | 70 | 62 | 50 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 47 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 79.99 or below +24pp 56→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 74.99 or below +19pp 46→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 79.99 or below −15pp 71→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 79.99 or below −10pp 80→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 64.99 or below −10pp 36→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether crude oil's front-month price will trade at or above $50 at any point before the end of 2026. At 55% probability, the market reflects slightly better odds for reaching this threshold than not. Current WTI prices near $80–90 provide substantial room for prices to decline 40–44% and still settle above $50 by year-end. The main drivers are global supply disruptions, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic demand—particularly manufacturing activity in developed economies and Chinese industrial output. Near-term catalysts include weekly petroleum inventory data from the EIA and OPEC meetings scheduled later in 2026, both of which can shift sentiment around medium-term price floors. The low cost of capital and structural demand for crude oil make prices dropping below $50 less likely than a year ago, though recession risk or a sustained demand collapse remains possible.

### Key factors

- Current WTI front-month price (~$80–90) sits 38–44% above the $50 threshold, creating a substantial buffer against year-end settlement below target
- Weekly EIA crude inventory reports and any supply disruptions (geopolitical events, refinery outages) are near-term price movers that affect the probability of temporary dips
- OPEC production policy decisions and changes in Chinese economic growth rates directly influence medium-term price floors and the likelihood of sustained sub-$50 pricing
- The 7-contract structure shows meaningful disagreement on specific price levels in May and December, with some traders pricing near-term volatility while others focus on year-end positioning
- A global recession scenario or demand destruction would be the primary risk to the $50 floor; current probabilities suggest markets assess this risk as material but not dominant

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtimin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtimin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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