# Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: $96.00 to $96.99. Last odds frozen 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtiw
Updated: 2026-06-05T19:20:12.252Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Leader: Above $93.99 at 38%
- Runner-up: $92.00 to $92.99 at 16%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $97K
- Resolved: $96.00 to $96.99

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $93.99 | 38¢ | −14pp | $58K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-above-9-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-t93.99 |
| $92.00 to $92.99 | 16¢ | +6pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b92.50 |
| $93.00 to $93.99 | 14¢ | +3pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b93.50 |
| $91.00 to $91.99 | 11¢ | +4pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b91.50 |
| $90.00 to $90.99 | 8¢ | +4pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b90.50 |
| $89.00 to $89.99 | 4¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b89.50 |
| $88.00 to $88.99 | 3¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-wti-crude-oil-settlement-price-be-between-kalshi-kxwtiw-26jun0514-b88.50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $93.99 | $92.00 to $92.99 | $93.00 to $93.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 18 | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-06-04 | 49 | 11 | 10 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Above $93.99 +21pp 42→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Above $93.99 +16pp 21→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above $93.99 −14pp 63→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · $92.00 to $92.99 +6pp 5→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Above $93.99 +5pp 37→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that WTI crude oil will close between $85.00 and $85.99 on April 24, 2026. At 36%, this is the highest-priced outcome among eleven competing price bands for that settlement date. The current pricing suggests traders view a sub-$96 close as more likely (13% implied), indicating broader expectations that oil may trade lower than current levels. The actual settlement price on April 24 will determine the outcome, with trading activity and supply/demand dynamics in the weeks leading up to that date driving shifts in probabilities. Geopolitical events, OPEC production decisions, US economic data, and global demand signals typically influence crude direction significantly.

### Key factors

- WTI is currently trading at levels substantially above the $85–$86 range, requiring roughly 10–15% downward movement to settle in this band
- The $109+ contract commands the highest probability (36%), suggesting market consensus leans toward higher prices rather than this lower-bound scenario
- OPEC meeting outcomes, US inventory reports, and macroeconomic indicators between now and April 24 will materially affect settlement price
- Open interest and trading volume are concentrated on contracts $96 and above, indicating asymmetric conviction toward higher price outcomes
- Seasonal demand patterns and geopolitical tensions historically drive significant WTI volatility in comparable timeframes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wtiw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wtiw
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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