# Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC

> Wuhan San Zhen FC leads at 47%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:28.572Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Wuhan San Zhen FC at 47%
- Runner-up: Qingdao Hainiu FC at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan San Zhen FC | 47¢ | +2pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-wuhan-san-z-polymarket-0x13b64b20aec5484de695c175fc83653c6671149e66c58a995f23b5be8c114305 |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC | 27¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-qingdao-hai-polymarket-0xe80fa6dbaafe3f0d6942ab9d0c5769012d377cfe29b0dfce780d8037c488291b |
| Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC) | 26¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-draw-wuhan-polymarket-0xcb984a86b009388c0361c32ccf09d81328c6629be9d3010e03dd22cba7cd8b64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Wuhan San Zhen FC | Qingdao Hainiu FC | Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | 39 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | 33 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 | 27 | 26 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Qingdao Hainiu FC −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Qingdao Hainiu FC −6pp 33→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC) −5pp 31→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC) −4pp 35→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Wuhan San Zhen FC is currently priced with a 47% probability of winning against Qingdao Hainiu FC, making them slight favorites in this matchup. The probability reflects market expectations based on recent form, head-to-head records, squad composition, and home-field advantage considerations. The price could shift materially based on team news—such as injuries to key players, lineup changes announced before kickoff, or recent performance trends—which typically emerge in the days immediately before competition. The most significant driver of repricing will be the match result itself, which resolves the question definitively. Secondary factors include betting volume concentration, which currently appears modest across the three linked contracts ($90-$339 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited liquidity may create wider spreads between buy and sell prices. Market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty: the 47% for Wuhan San Zhen implies roughly even odds when accounting for the third outcome (Qingdao Hainiu at 27%, implying a draw or other outcome at 26%), indicating neither team is heavily favored.

### Key factors

- Wuhan San Zhen holds 47% probability compared to runner-up Qingdao Hainiu at 27%, with remaining probability split among other outcomes
- Three separate Polymarket contracts averaging 34% shows significant dispersion, suggesting contract specification differences or low market consensus
- 24-hour trading volume across linked contracts ranges from $33 to $339, indicating relatively thin liquidity that may allow single large trades to move prices materially
- The probability reflects pre-match conditions; major repricing typically follows confirmed team sheets, injury announcements, or weather/venue updates within 24-48 hours of kickoff
- Historical head-to-head record, current league standings, and recent form data would be needed to assess whether 47% is high or low relative to fundamental expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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