# Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons

> Above 72 million short tons leads at 95%, runner-up 88% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wvcoal
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.309Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 72 million short tons at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 74 million short tons at 88%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 72 million short tons | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t72 |
| Above 74 million short tons | 88¢ | ±0 | $930 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t74 |
| Above 76 million short tons | 62¢ | — | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t76 |
| Above 78 million short tons | 26¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t78 |
| Above 80 million short tons | 22¢ | +2pp | $208 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t80 |
| Above 82 million short tons | 10¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t82 |
| Above 84 million short tons | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-virginias-total-coal-production-for-2026-kalshi-kxwvcoal-27apr01-t84 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 72 million short tons | Above 74 million short tons | Above 76 million short tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 90 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | 91 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | 89 | 22 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Above 80 million short tons +4pp 22→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 80 million short tons −4pp 26→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 82 million short tons +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that West Virginia will exceed 74 million short tons of coal production in 2026. The high 89% probability suggests traders believe output will remain above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher production levels (76%, 61%, 21%) indicate uncertainty about whether production will substantially exceed the baseline. Coal production depends on demand from electric utilities and industrial users, which is sensitive to natural gas prices, electricity consumption patterns, and regulatory changes affecting coal-fired power plants. The primary driver of resolution will be the actual 2026 production figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, typically reported in early 2027. Current market positioning suggests confidence in sustained output but tempered expectations for significant growth.

### Key factors

- West Virginia's 2025 coal production and trend trajectory relative to the 74 million short ton benchmark
- Natural gas prices and their competitive effect on coal-fired electricity generation economics
- Retirement or operational status of major coal-fired power plants in West Virginia's key customer regions
- Aggregate U.S. electricity demand growth or contraction in 2026 compared to recent years
- Changes to federal or state energy policy affecting coal generation dispatch or mining operations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wvcoal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wvcoal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.