# Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-AL

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 6 contracts — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wyprimary
Updated: 2026-06-24T02:20:49.169Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Gray | 49¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-chuck-gray-be-the-republican-nominee-for-wy-a-kalshi-kxwyprimary-alr26-cgra |
| Elena Del Real | 9¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-elena-del-real-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxwyprimary-ald26-erea |
| Lisa Kinney | 90¢ | +26pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-kinney-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-wy-kalshi-kxwyprimary-ald26-lkin |
| Frank Chapman | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frank-chapman-be-the-republican-nominee-for-w-kalshi-kxwyprimary-alr26-fcha |
| Reid Rasner | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reid-rasner-be-the-republican-nominee-for-wy-kalshi-kxwyprimary-alr26-rras |
| Steve Friess | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-friess-be-the-republican-nominee-for-wy-kalshi-kxwyprimary-alr26-sfri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 3 |
| 2026-06-11 | 57 |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 |
| 2026-06-23 | 90 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Lisa Kinney +26pp 64→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Steve Friess +4pp 6→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Steve Friess has a 25% chance of winning the Republican nomination for Wyoming's at-large congressional seat. Friess faces competition from candidates with higher current probabilities, including Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner who are both priced at 35%. The 25% probability would likely move based on campaign funding levels, endorsements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and primary turnout patterns. The Republican primary election will be the decisive event determining the nominee, scheduled for August 2026. Between now and then, candidate performance at public forums, fundraising announcements, and any shifts in party establishment support could significantly alter these probabilities.

### Key factors

- Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner are both priced 10 percentage points higher than Friess, indicating traders view them as stronger frontrunners for the nomination
- Trading volume on the Friess contract ($300 in 24h) substantially exceeds other candidates, suggesting more active price discovery for this particular outcome
- The August 2026 Wyoming Republican primary election will directly determine the nominee and fully resolve this contract
- No recent high-profile endorsements, campaign events, or funding announcements appear reflected in the current pricing differential between top candidates
- Giralt is priced at only 10% despite being listed as an alternative nominee option, suggesting limited trader conviction in a three-way competitive scenario

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wyprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wyprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.