# Xi Jinping out by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xi-jinping-out-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:59.554Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 18% / Polymarket 13% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $152K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 8¢ | −1pp | $97K | polymarket | /markets/xi-jinping-out-before-2027-polymarket-0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7 |
| June 30 | 18¢ | −2pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-polymarket-0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515 |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −23pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/netanyahu-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x865303ccb9a48341d1bae33b3b4379ca86d5abbff3ce1e132716631cc0af3cce |
| June 30 | 31¢ | −1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/kash-patel-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x79859c9e6645873e1568344b0b8ee54cc9eb02b90701cc5ba19c9a547ff313ce |
| June 30 | 41¢ | −1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/starmer-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053 |
| June 30, 2026 | 17¢ | −2pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-polymarket-0xb14c073b5ff01c3f9a42b15c867475ae38612ecbe3a8945375ba56969c270247 |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-leader-of-bahrain-polymarket-0x08b346f4580cbd59cc79416ab4fa00642b3737a04e822d85ef344dd7b0c4ee0a |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | 13¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-june-3-polymarket-0x269b4de59b444c57f166f690b1ce8c388bf26167c6a68f7613ab5b05e86375a8 |
| June 30, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $716 | polymarket | /markets/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-ju-polymarket-0x5649a937907e0db6814f3fcbfa68e9f78a700d8c0e38ce652a572d97e205640d |
| June 30 | 11¢ | −2pp | $702 | polymarket | /markets/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3ed92a5a51371e8ba5882ae743ccf90460c8860fdd862a9389e249d0a2b9f055 |
| June 30 | 23¢ | −1pp | $416 | polymarket | /markets/tulsi-gabbard-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x7603555ca158dfb3ec4ef84a0d9d247b5229def167093a9e844e1ae383c5d83a |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 19¢ | −1pp | $310 | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-president-of-cuba-by-june-polymarket-0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21 |
| June 30 | 12¢ | −1pp | $115 | polymarket | /markets/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president-by-june-polymarket-0x6a5a2f0dee907cdb831d2f697674cd6827ab0cafdab130615b8ec656b62ce51a |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | 3¢ | −1pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30-polymarket-0xffbcdc2256cb0149f2dda67557c1e95b4b3b41c4d08bbb255e877c97b3c119d4 |
| Before June 1, 2026 | 18¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-cory-mills-be-out-as-congressman-before-june-kalshi-kxleavemills-26nov03-26jun |
| June 30, 2026 | 4¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x56f429da08529abec24c531b7accf689d84e68096c4983d375ff37f316f46dae |
| June 30 | 6¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by-jun-polymarket-0xc1a90cbaa26e8e5e79f2a395362a72302ca065b5c5d32aa83e97f3f5b68e7c45 |
| June 30, 2026 | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xef416cfd80afbb43c7550a8fe0f950679ab3d6e60551e2a90f230106809fe2c5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 23 |
| 2026-04-19 | 21 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · June 30 −23pp 28→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +21pp 7→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30, 2026 +18pp 4→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · June 30, 2026 −18pp 22→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 −15pp 59→44¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xi-jinping-out-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=xi-jinping-out-june-30

## License

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