# Xi Jinping out before 2027

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xi-jinping-out
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 7¢ | −1pp | $20K | polymarket | /markets/xi-jinping-out-before-2027-polymarket-0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 8 |
| 2026-06-11 | 8 |
| 2026-06-13 | 7 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects the market's assessment of roughly 8% odds that Xi Jinping loses his position as China's top leader by the end of 2026. Xi currently holds the positions of General Secretary of the Communist Party, President, and Chairman of the Military Commission. The low probability reflects his consolidated control of China's political system and lack of obvious succession mechanisms. Markets would reassess this probability if there were unexpected health crises, major military conflicts, severe economic disruptions, or signs of elite faction breakdown within the Party. The 20th National Congress in 2027 represents the next scheduled leadership transition opportunity, though Xi is not constitutionally required to step down then. Compared to other world leaders on similar contracts, this probability sits below estimates for European premiers but above historical norms for entrenched authoritarian leaders.

### Key factors

- Xi has consolidated near-total control of Party, state, and military structures with no obvious rival faction or constitutional mechanism forcing his removal before late 2026
- Major health events, military escalation over Taiwan, or severe financial crisis could trigger elite recalculation, but no such triggering events are currently evident
- The scheduled 20th Party Congress occurs in late 2027, outside the contract window, meaning removal before then would require extraordinary circumstances rather than routine succession planning
- Polymarket volume of $16,608 in 24h trading suggests moderate but not extreme liquidity, indicating this contract has interest but limited institutional participation
- Comparable markets show Trump removal priced at 14% and Orbán at 5%, establishing context for how markets price removal risk across different regime types

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xi-jinping-out
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=xi-jinping-out

## License

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