Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...
Leader sits at 41% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
June 30
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
220 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Japanese politician Yoichi Takaichi by December 31, 2026. At 37%, traders assess this as unlikely but plausible within the seven-month window. The probability reflects the rarity of high-level bilateral meetings between Chinese and Japanese leaders, constrained by diplomatic tensions and scheduled state visits. Movement would depend on official announcements of summit dates, shifts in regional tensions, or Japan's political calendar—particularly whether Takaichi assumes higher office. The June 30 contract prices at 3%, suggesting markets view an imminent meeting as highly improbable, making the December timeline the active betting focus.
- ›Xi Jinping and Japanese political leaders meet infrequently; any bilateral summit requires months of advance diplomatic coordination and public announcement
- ›Yoichi Takaichi's current political position and proximity to top ministerial roles materially affect meeting likelihood—a cabinet appointment would increase probability
- ›No announced or speculated bilateral summit date exists as of May 2026; absence of diplomatic signals suggests low near-term probability
- ›China-Japan relations periodically experience flare-ups over territorial disputes, trade, or statements; escalation would reduce meeting odds, while de-escalation could increase them
- ›The December 31 deadline allows roughly seven months for scheduling; meetings are typically scheduled 2-3 months in advance, suggesting decision points likely fall in September-October 2026
What moved the line
- May 20June 30↓8pp11→3¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (41% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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