# XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch — $10M

> $40M leads at 84%, runner-up 13% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.725Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $40M at 84%
- Runner-up: $80M at 13%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40M | 84¢ | −24pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-40m-polymarket-0x0a55872601157b2a2b83ec2a43c5a0b3321e08685be8f6da02c7b7f79e72730d |
| $80M | 13¢ | −25pp | $971 | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-80m-polymarket-0xb3faca7d3fd895867afe67c147b647d59a6939e7fbd59d6c87d75d4f8db3d26f |
| $60M | 10¢ | −15pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-60m-polymarket-0x6456955f4341952f0a9c8c20a52b64d57c5c72422968f23de0efe103fd32c20a |
| $100M | 5¢ | −16pp | $276 | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xbb9ba5b35a01cb2118db0e6564c2676cfe9d59baa17c496620cc613db18f4436 |
| $150M | 4¢ | −12pp | $525 | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-150m-polymarket-0x609c5cadcd8d0c73c5bb86139ce49567a67b6cba3e041ee3704f20b07ddf5193 |
| $200M | 3¢ | −9pp | $433 | polymarket | /markets/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xdc338f9cb857afa001fe2fd2ee03d9c42da8b1ed42696b2b2d3c2a1f19185c31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $40M | $80M | $60M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 50 | 51 | 47 |
| 2026-05-26 | 73 | 61 | 57 |
| 2026-05-27 | 77 | 48 | 51 |
| 2026-05-28 | 53 | 23 | 36 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · $80M −25pp 48→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · $40M −24pp 77→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · $40M +23pp 50→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · $100M −16pp 36→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · $60M −15pp 51→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract measures the probability that XMAQUINA will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of at least $10 million within one day of its token launch. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty in the market that this modest valuation threshold will be met. The wide gap between the $10M contract (97¢) and higher thresholds like $40M (50¢) and $150M (43¢) suggests traders expect the token to launch successfully and reach initial trading valuations, but are far less confident about significantly higher outcomes. The primary driver is whether the launch executes on schedule with sufficient liquidity and buyer interest to achieve even the lowest threshold. Resolution depends on the launch date and how FDV is calculated—typically by multiplying token price by total supply at the moment trading begins. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand or a larger initial supply, while downside risks involve launch delays, regulatory issues, or minimal initial trading volume.

### Key factors

- Launch execution status and timing remain the core uncertainty—delays or technical failures would pressure the $10M threshold down
- Initial token liquidity and order book depth at launch will directly determine achievable FDV; insufficient trading volume could prevent price discovery at claimed valuations
- Total token supply announced at launch directly multiplies with opening price to determine FDV; larger supply pools risk valuation
- Market demand relative to other comparable token launches; comparison to similar projects' first-day valuations provides calibration
- Definition and verification of FDV used for resolution—whether it includes all outstanding tokens or only circulating supply affects threshold achievability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=xmaquina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.