# Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.80 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Above $1.90 leads at 4%, runner-up 4% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xrpmaxmon-xrp
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.468Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $1.90 at 4%
- Runner-up: Above $1.70 at 4%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.90 | 4¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-190-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxmon-xrp-26jun30-190 |
| Above $1.70 | 4¢ | +1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-170-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxmon-xrp-26jun30-170 |
| Above $2.00 | 4¢ | +2pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-200-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxmon-xrp-26jun30-200 |
| Above $1.50 | 3¢ | +2pp | $196 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-150-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxmon-xrp-26jun30-150 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $1.90 | Above $1.70 | Above $2.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 2026-06-11 | 5 | 4 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 3 | — |
| 2026-06-13 | — | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-06-19 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | 3 | — | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.80 by April 30, 2026—a date now 10 months in the past from today's perspective, suggesting this is a historical resolution or data issue. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that XRP reached this price level during that window. XRP's actual price movements depend on adoption trends, regulatory developments (particularly SEC rulings affecting XRP classification), and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The main driver of such probabilities is whether market sentiment supports a price appreciation to nearly double recent trading levels. Related contracts show declining probabilities at higher price thresholds: $2.10 is priced at 3%, while $1.40 trades at 6%, indicating the market views higher price targets as increasingly unlikely within specified timeframes. Historical volatility and the current reference price relative to the $1.80 target would determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- XRP trimmed mean settlement price at the April 30, 2026 cutoff relative to $1.80 reference level—this resolves the contract directly
- Regulatory clarity on XRP's asset classification by the contract date, affecting institutional adoption and price support
- Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market performance during the settlement period, as XRP moves correlated with macro crypto trends
- Trading volume and market depth at price levels near $1.80, indicating institutional or retail demand sustainability
- Historical XRP volatility relative to the $1.80 target, including whether prior rallies reached comparable levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xrpmaxmon-xrp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=xrpmaxmon-xrp

## License

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