# Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

> Above $2.00 leads at 50%, runner-up 27% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xrpmaxy-xrp
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.279Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.00 at 50%
- Runner-up: Above $2.50 at 27%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.00 | 50¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-200-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-200 |
| Above $2.50 | 27¢ | +3pp | $638 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-250-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-250 |
| Above $3.00 | 15¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-300-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-300 |
| Above $4.00 | 11¢ | −2pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-400-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-400 |
| Above $3.50 | 11¢ | −3pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-350-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-350 |
| Above $5.00 | 8¢ | −4pp | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-500-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-500 |
| Above $4.50 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-450-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-450 |
| Above $5.50 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-550-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-550 |
| Above $7.00 | 5¢ | −1pp | $189 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-700-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-700 |
| Above $6.50 | 5¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-650-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-650 |
| Above $6.00 | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xrp-trimmed-mean-be-above-600-by-1159-pm-et-o-kalshi-kxxrpmaxy-xrp-26dec31-600 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.00 | Above $2.50 | Above $3.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 29 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | 12 | 5 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 16 | 2 | 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | 50 | 23 | 16 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above $2.00 +21pp 26→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above $2.50 −8pp 10→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above $5.00 −8pp 11→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above $2.00 +7pp 19→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above $2.50 +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 49% probability that XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.50 by year-end 2026, with about five months remaining. The probability reflects uncertainty around broader cryptocurrency market conditions, regulatory developments affecting XRP specifically, and macroeconomic factors that typically drive volatile asset prices. Market participants are pricing in meaningful upside potential—the $3.00 contract at 29¢ suggests non-trivial odds of further appreciation—but also acknowledge downside risk, with the $1.50 level commanding less than even odds. Upcoming catalysts include regulatory clarity from the SEC, adoption developments from Ripple's enterprise partnerships, and correlation with broader digital asset market movements. The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme price outliers, reducing manipulation-driven distortions in the final reading.

### Key factors

- XRP has traded in a wide range over prior 12-month periods; achieving $1.50+ requires roughly 50-150% appreciation depending on current levels
- Regulatory outcomes—particularly SEC enforcement actions or legislative clarity—have historically created sharp price movements in XRP within days or weeks
- The contract's multi-outcome structure shows declining probabilities at higher price thresholds ($3.00 at 29¢, $4.50 at 15¢), indicating tiered conviction rather than binary outcomes
- Kalshi volume remains relatively modest ($300-500 per contract daily), suggesting limited institutional positioning and potential for repricing on new information
- Trimmed mean methodology requires assessment across multiple exchanges; concentration on low-volume venues could inflate or deflate the final settlement value

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/xrpmaxy-xrp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=xrpmaxy-xrp

## License

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