# Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers

> Kashima Antlers leads at 47%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.347Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: Kashima Antlers at 47%
- Runner-up: Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers) at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $69

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 47¢ | +1pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers-kashima-antle-polymarket-0xaa6825ca49a60d5eefcc7c8f4cfccd497a15686466d99ee18bb3679294eebdbc |
| Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers) | 27¢ | ±0 | $37 | polymarket | /markets/yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers-draw-yokohama-polymarket-0xd37b9bf6ee5abec5d55ae132ad6fa27e0eed1001b64c469d2f9940278c3cc78d |
| Yokohama F·Marinos | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers-yokohama-fmar-polymarket-0x4e2c3317edba40430cb852646b436a5c4d176fbcfe3252bcb5ca9912e32e05a2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kashima Antlers | Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers) | Yokohama F·Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 30 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | 27 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 47 | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | — | 27 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Yokohama F·Marinos −5pp 31→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers) −3pp 30→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the implied likelihood that Kashima Antlers will defeat Yokohama F·Marinos in an upcoming match, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. At 48%, Kashima is favored but not strongly—the market also assigns substantial probability to both a Yokohama victory (32%) and a draw (31%). The relatively tight distribution suggests the outcome is genuinely uncertain, likely reflecting comparable team strength or recent form. Contract volumes show minimal recent trading activity, meaning these prices may not incorporate very recent information. Key factors moving this probability would include team roster availability, recent head-to-head performance, home-field advantage implications, and current league standings. The resolution will occur once the match concludes and the official result is recorded.

### Key factors

- Current odds imply Kashima as slight favorite, but the 16-percentage-point spread between first (48%) and second place (32%) is not a decisive gap
- Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests limited new information flow into the market since prices were last set
- The three outcomes are relatively balanced (48%-32%-31%), indicating substantial residual uncertainty rather than high confidence in any single outcome
- Recent team form, injury status, and head-to-head record would be primary inputs for updating these probabilities
- Match date and kickoff time would determine when this market resolves to a definitive outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yokohama-fmarinos-vs-kashima-antlers

## License

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