# YOM FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $50M leads at 45%, runner-up 45% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.176Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 45%
- Runner-up: $100M at 45%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x1865f885ed36f0fe131ca6da26b551e05c72ca10daf1949d1d77c96cb23c21f5 |
| $100M | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xb3b9f0b0aa1e105669ecc50915b81a40e691161150aac65a5470b917806a29c3 |
| $300M | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xd5ef21f54e964795a9166e54e33cbe05c441ca066bdb79bace51a600e10f7895 |
| $200M | 44¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x4e66627044764d3107d8de13be3bd74d32027d381ac4307d576496a676bc3af8 |
| $20M | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x5e89c548691d4fc6138c7351cdafb6bcfbd3f991b9cf0f709a8585acc3ea4aea |
| $800M | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0x4912f26af3de8ca7c101ba68ce51abc0b3a15a8a32dd02cfe3821df1d20fefbc |
| $500M | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x7c05febba2c381b40a1b9a8b3f61b448ec46c73cdd83ef0257f70c173fddeb0f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $300M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 47 | 42 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 | 45 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 43 | 50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 46 | 42 | 43 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $20M −7pp 56→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $300M −7pp 50→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $200M −6pp 50→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M −6pp 49→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $50M −4pp 47→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 60% probability that a token will reach a $100 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launch. The current price reflects moderately bullish sentiment, sitting between the runner-up contract at 51% and outcomes with higher thresholds trading lower. The valuation hinges on launch-day trading volume, initial demand, and how the token supply is structured—larger supplies at equivalent market caps would produce lower valuations. Key uncertainties include market conditions on launch day, competing token releases, and regulatory developments that could affect sentiment. The resolution depends entirely on the token's first 24-hour trading activity and the official FDV calculation, which typically factors circulating or fully diluted token counts announced at or before launch. Market-wide crypto sentiment and comparable recent token launches will likely influence final positioning.

### Key factors

- Circulating supply announced at launch determines whether a given market cap translates to $100M FDV or not
- Launch-day crypto market conditions and aggregate trading volume across exchanges determine whether initial demand meets threshold
- Token lockup structure and vesting schedules affect reported FDV calculation methodology
- Competitive landscape—simultaneous launches or major competing tokens could reduce demand allocation
- Pre-launch marketing, partnerships announced, and ecosystem positioning set baseline expectations for Day 1 trading activity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yom-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.