# Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.2 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026

> Above 8.2 million leads at 89%, runner-up 71% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/you
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:52.042Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 8.2 million at 89%
- Runner-up: Above 8.3 million at 71%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $200

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.2 million | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-82-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8199999.999999999 |
| Above 8.3 million | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-83-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8300000 |
| Above 8.4 million | 47¢ | +1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-84-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8400000.0 |
| Above 8.5 million | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-85-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8500000 |
| Above 8.6 million | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-86-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8600000.0 |
| Above 8.8 million | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-88-million-acti-kalshi-kxyou-26augmem-8800000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 8.2 million | Above 8.3 million | Above 8.4 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 80 | 66 | 43 |
| 2026-06-11 | 88 | 73 | 49 |
| 2026-06-12 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 89 | 73 | 48 |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 | 71 | 47 |
| 2026-06-26 | 89 | 71 | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.5 million +6pp 18→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 8.4 million −5pp 50→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 8.3 million −5pp 74→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 8.2 million −4pp 90→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 78% probability indicates markets expect Clear Secure to report at least 8.2 million active Clear+ members in Q2 2026. The metric tracks subscription adoption for the company's expedited airport security program, a key revenue driver. The probability reflects confidence in continued membership growth, though quarterly membership fluctuations depend on enrollment trends, retention rates, and competitive pressures. Q2 results will be released in late July or early August 2026, when Clear Secure reports its second-quarter earnings. Markets price substantially lower odds for higher thresholds (38% for 8.4M, 15% for 8.6M, 5% for 8.8M), suggesting consensus expects growth but with meaningful uncertainty around the magnitude. Historical membership trends, airport traffic patterns, and subscription pricing changes all influence the final count.

### Key factors

- Clear Secure's Q1 2026 membership baseline and reported growth rate serve as the primary predictor for Q2 performance
- Quarterly membership changes typically correlate with travel volumes and seasonality, making summer airport traffic patterns material
- Competitive dynamics from other biometric/expedited security programs could affect Clear+ adoption or retention rates
- The company's pricing and promotional strategies in H1 2026 directly influence enrollment conversion and churn
- Historical quarterly growth cadence shows whether 8.2M represents baseline or optimistic scenario relative to recent trends

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/you
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=you

## License

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