# Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.7 million active clear+ members in 2026

> Above 8.4 million leads at 88%, runner-up 81% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/youa
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.486Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 8.4 million at 88%
- Runner-up: Above 8.5 million at 81%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $429

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million | 88¢ | −4pp | $290 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-84-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8400000.0 |
| Above 8.5 million | 81¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-85-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8500000.0 |
| Above 8.6 million | 72¢ | −3pp | $139 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-86-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8600000.0 |
| Above 8.7 million | 62¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-87-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8700000.0 |
| Above 8.8 million | 49¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-88-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8800000.0 |
| Above 8.9 million | 34¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-89-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-8900000.0 |
| Above 9 million | 24¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-9-million-activ-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-9000000.0 |
| Above 9.1 million | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clear-secure-inc-report-above-91-million-acti-kalshi-kxyoua-28janmem-9100000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 8.4 million | Above 8.5 million | Above 8.6 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 74 | 55 | 59 |
| 2026-06-24 | 94 | 84 | 75 |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 | 81 | 72 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.5 million +29pp 55→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.4 million +20pp 74→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.7 million +19pp 48→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.6 million +16pp 59→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 8.8 million +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 94% probability that Clear Secure Inc. will report above 8.7 million active Clear+ members by the end of 2026. The high confidence reflects Clear's historical member growth trajectory and established market position in airport security screening. However, the declining prices on higher thresholds (75% for 8.6M, 49% for 8.8M, 24% for 9M) signal meaningful uncertainty about growth acceleration. Resolution depends on Clear's official year-end 2026 membership disclosure, typically reported in Q4 earnings. Key drivers include airport traffic recovery patterns post-pandemic, competitive pressure from TSA PreCheck and enrollment alternatives, consumer adoption rates among business travelers, and any changes to Clear's pricing or service offerings that could affect member retention or acquisition velocity.

### Key factors

- Clear reported approximately 8.2-8.3 million active members in early 2026, requiring roughly 400,000-500,000 net new members over ~6 months to exceed 8.7 million
- Historical member growth rates and quarterly enrollment trends will determine whether 8.7M is a conservative or aggressive target for year-end 2026
- TSA PreCheck enrollment and competitor offerings directly impact Clear's addressable market and member acquisition costs
- Airport traffic volumes and business travel spending patterns through Q4 2026 influence consumer demand for expedited security screening
- Year-end 2026 earnings disclosure will provide the official membership count that resolves all contracts in this outcome series

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/youa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=youa

## License

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