# yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch — $500M

> $30M leads at 75%, runner-up 68% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.320Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $30M at 75%
- Runner-up: $50M at 68%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $70

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30M | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-30m-polymarket-0xefb298b192f5635bbc9d99f39f2584b88660035a6c5d2f23c876f3628abc8ffc |
| $50M | 68¢ | +1pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xaf5e903876ad42de97e1cf02c2ef8484df69bcfc5541b96a400116557d1e504e |
| $100M | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xe9955a31d76ea97457410f61c9b9f2d27ac6fbd8302ed1849d93133884f4fb3b |
| $300M | 38¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xc7d462e462d8d369aee17c9e3ea8f113166cf9a342a6434a0b2a0f7588dc1bbf |
| $500M | 34¢ | +1pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x0440d08e4f534afa8ad9f616a239a19ebf7f2476bd802b1d54180435fa83463f |
| $200M | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x8e6a263fc5f4dd9433b4ccbc9bb9e0d89f4de8a91d3a82d6b437fe73fd847ea5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $30M | $50M | $100M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 51 | 56 | 27 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 | 51 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 | 56 | 40 |
| 2026-05-08 | 73 | 67 | 51 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $500M +26pp 9→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $50M +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M +9pp 42→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $50M +6pp 56→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $50M −5pp 71→66¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction reflects the market's assessment that yo.xyz will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $500 million within one day of its launch. The 72% probability indicates substantial confidence in this outcome, supported by significant trading volume across multiple valuation thresholds. The market is pricing in optimistic launch conditions, likely influenced by comparable crypto asset launches and early trading momentum. Key drivers of this probability include actual launch date timing, initial trading volume and demand, and whether the project meets or exceeds pre-launch community expectations. The resolution hinges entirely on the FDV calculation method used and the exchange data captured in the 24-hour window following launch. Downward pressure could emerge if launch delays occur, technical issues arise, or initial trading activity disappoints relative to current expectations reflected in related contracts.

### Key factors

- Launch timing and coordination with major exchanges—delays or limited exchange availability would reduce trading volume and potentially lower FDV
- Initial trading volume and price discovery—the 24-hour FDV calculation depends directly on actual transaction activity, order book depth, and market maker participation
- Comparison to related contracts shows market hedging across thresholds ($100M at 89¢, $800M at 17¢), suggesting uncertainty about the precise valuation range rather than fundamental launch success
- The $5,580 in 24-hour volume on the $500M contract indicates active price discovery but relatively modest contract liquidity for a binary outcome
- Discrepancy between Polymarket's 44¢ average and the 72% leader price suggests potential arbitrage opportunities or disagreement among traders on valuation probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yoxyz-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.