# Will Burna Boy be #1 on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - United States in August 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 4 contracts — refreshed 55 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ytmonthly
Updated: 2026-08-03T19:20:49.191Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $195

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Grande | 7¢ | −5pp | $164 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-1-on-youtube-charts-daily-to-kalshi-kxytmonthly-26sep01-ari |
| Ella Langley | 6¢ | −7pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-ella-langley-be-1-on-youtube-charts-daily-top-kalshi-kxytmonthly-26sep01b-ell |
| KATSEYE | 6¢ | −5pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-katseye-be-1-on-youtube-charts-daily-top-musi-kalshi-kxytmonthly-26sep01b-kat |
| Ice Spice | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ice-spice-be-1-on-youtube-charts-daily-top-mu-kalshi-kxytmonthly-26sep01b-ice |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 29 |
| 2026-08-03 | 6 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-30 · Ice Spice −28pp 35→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-31 · Ariana Grande −20pp 30→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-30 · KATSEYE −14pp 33→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-30 · Ella Langley −12pp 18→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-01 · KATSEYE −12pp 20→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Burna Boy will reach the #1 position on YouTube's daily top music videos chart for the United States at some point during August 2026. The 50% aggregated probability sits between the individual contract prices, suggesting genuine uncertainty about whether Burna Boy's content will outperform competitors during this specific month. Key drivers include whether Burna Boy releases new music in early August with sufficient promotional push, and how aggressively competing artists like Lil Baby (61¢) and Ella Langley (3¢) pursue chart placement. The outcome depends on cumulative daily chart performance throughout August, making the exact timing and volume of music releases the critical factor. Resolution occurs automatically as August progresses and daily YouTube chart data becomes public record.

### Key factors

- Whether Burna Boy releases new single or music video in August 2026 and its promotional intensity
- Timing and competitive landscape of releases from higher-probability artists (Lil Baby at 61¢, Moneybagg Yo at 3¢) during the same period
- Historical YouTube chart velocity for Burna Boy's previous releases relative to US market engagement patterns
- Volume of competing releases from trending US artists in August 2026
- YouTube's specific methodology for daily top music videos ranking and whether it measures views, engagement, or other metrics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ytmonthly
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ytmonthly

## License

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