# Will Yum! Brands Inc. report Above 7% taco bell same-store sales growth in fiscal 2026

> Above -1% leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yuma
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:51.958Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Above -1% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 2% at 92%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $114

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -1% | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-1-kfc-same-store-kalshi-kxyuma-27febkfcsss-n1.0 |
| Above 2% | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-2-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-2 |
| Above 0% | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-0-kfc-same-store-kalshi-kxyuma-27febkfcsss-0 |
| Above 3% | 85¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-3-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-3 |
| Above 4% | 73¢ | −1pp | $114 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-4-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-4 |
| Above 1% | 72¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-1-kfc-same-store-kalshi-kxyuma-27febkfcsss-1 |
| Above 5% | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-5-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-5 |
| Above 2% | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-2-kfc-same-store-kalshi-kxyuma-27febkfcsss-2 |
| Above 6% | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-6-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-6 |
| Above 7% | 12¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-7-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-7 |
| Above 3% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-3-kfc-same-store-kalshi-kxyuma-27febkfcsss-3 |
| Above 8% | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yum-brands-inc-report-above-8-taco-bell-same-kalshi-kxyuma-27febtbsss-8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -1% | Above 2% | Above 0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 85 | 79 | 74 |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 94 | 89 |
| 2026-08-03 | 93 | — | 86 |
| 2026-08-09 | 94 | 92 | 87 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · Above 4% −6pp 78→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Above 5% −5pp 56→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Taco Bell will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 7% in fiscal 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders believe this outcome is highly likely, but the sharp price drop across the threshold contracts—from 74¢ at 4% growth to just 18¢ at 7% growth—reveals concentration of uncertainty in the 4-7% range. Resolution depends on Yum! Brands' fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically occurs in early 2027. Key drivers include consumer demand for value-oriented quick-service restaurants, pricing power, menu innovation at Taco Bell, and broader economic conditions affecting discretionary spending. The low contract volume ($178 in 24-hour trading) suggests limited market depth, so the 97% headline price reflects relatively few transactions and should be interpreted cautiously.

### Key factors

- Taco Bell's historical same-store sales growth trends and whether 7%+ is consistent with or significantly above recent performance
- Macroeconomic conditions through fiscal 2026, particularly consumer spending patterns in the QSR value segment
- Pricing actions and promotional strategy at Taco Bell relative to competitor responses and elasticity dynamics
- The sharp probability cliff between 4% and 7% growth thresholds, suggesting most traders cluster expectations between 4-6%
- Trading volume and depth are minimal ($178/day), indicating the 97% price reflects thin liquidity and may not represent robust consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yuma
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yuma

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.