# Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102

> Above 96 leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yumtbft
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.477Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 96 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 97 at 92%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $212

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 96 | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t96 |
| Above 97 | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t97 |
| Above 98 | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t98 |
| Above 99 | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t99 |
| Above 100 | 57¢ | −1pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t100 |
| Above 101 | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t101 |
| Above 102 | 27¢ | −4pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 103 | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 105 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 106 | 8¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 104 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taco-bell-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-202-kalshi-kxyumtbft-26sep07-t104 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 96 | Above 97 | Above 98 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | — | — | 48 |
| 2026-08-04 | 64 | 62 | 62 |
| 2026-08-09 | 92 | 86 | 78 |
| 2026-08-17 | 91 | 85 | 77 |
| 2026-08-23 | 93 | 93 | 86 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Above 97 +49pp 41→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 97 −45pp 86→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 98 +44pp 40→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 98 −38pp 78→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 99 +35pp 39→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Taco Bell's monthly foot traffic will exceed 102 in August 2026. Markets currently price this outcome at 17 cents, suggesting less than a 20% probability. The pricing reflects uncertainty about consumer traffic patterns heading into late summer, when seasonal demand typically fluctuates. Key factors affecting resolution include overall quick-service restaurant traffic trends, regional economic conditions affecting discretionary dining, and Taco Bell's promotional activity during the month. The contract will resolve based on official foot traffic data reported after August closes, which typically becomes available within 1-2 weeks of month-end. Broader QSR traffic metrics and comparable chains' August performance will provide context for whether 102 represents an achievable threshold or an outlier outcome.

### Key factors

- August foot traffic baseline: historical Taco Bell August traffic levels and whether 102 represents above-average, average, or below-average performance for the month
- Promotional calendar: whether Taco Bell runs limited-time offers or value promotions in August 2026 that typically drive incremental traffic
- Competitive environment: traffic patterns at comparable QSR chains in August, indicating whether the broader market is trending toward higher or lower restaurant visits
- Weather patterns: summer heat and regional temperature variations affecting outdoor dining preferences and restaurant visit frequency
- Economic indicators: consumer spending and discretionary income levels in August 2026 relative to prior year comparisons

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yumtbft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yumtbft

## License

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