# Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC

> Yunnan Yukun FC leads at 47%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:52.760Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Yunnan Yukun FC at 47%
- Runner-up: Zhejiang Zhiye FC at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun FC | 47¢ | −5pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-yunnan-yukun-polymarket-0xf9ca096b6783bdd500542fe820f5090003208d58a40be876e0e6c2800fd79d93 |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-zhejiang-zhiy-polymarket-0xd6f0e5edf9621f531aa8a14e8130445aaf8cc4c629fa15524dd67b91cbe256f3 |
| Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) | 25¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-draw-yunnan-y-polymarket-0xe3c328d24859ed8fef392dfccc259670187330299c27f2a046d2166ce150a6ac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Yunnan Yukun FC | Zhejiang Zhiye FC | Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 53 | 30 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 31 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Yunnan Yukun FC −5pp 53→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) −5pp 29→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) −3pp 32→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract prices Yunnan Yukun FC's probability of winning at 44%, placing them as the slight favorite over Zhejiang Zhiye FC (30%) in what appears to be a Chinese football match. Market participants are distinguishing between outright victory and goal-margin outcomes: the over 2.5 goals market is priced at 62%, suggesting traders expect a moderately high-scoring contest regardless of winner. Recent volume of $17 is modest, typical for non-major league football fixtures. The probability hinges on team form, head-to-head records, squad availability, and home-field advantage. Contract resolution depends on the match outcome, likely occurring within weeks based on typical league scheduling. The small gap between Yunnan (44%) and Zhejiang (30%) indicates meaningful uncertainty rather than a clear prediction.

### Key factors

- Yunnan priced as modest favorite (44% vs. 30%) suggests relatively balanced matchup with modest predictive confidence
- Over 2.5 goals at 62% indicates market expectation of three or more total goals despite the defensive capabilities of both sides
- Polymarket volume remains low ($17 in 24h) across primary contract, suggesting limited institutional or high-volume trader participation
- Score-margin contracts (Yunnan -1.5 at 27%, Zhejiang -2.5 at 11%) show asymmetric confidence in Yunnan winning by narrow rather than decisive margins
- Match resolution date and recent fixture history (form, injuries, head-to-head record) are primary drivers of probability movement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc

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