# Will ZEC trimmed mean be above $400.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: yes. Last odds frozen 3 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zecmaxmon-zec
Updated: 2026-05-05T18:50:36.705Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 78% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $9
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $430.00 | 78¢ | +36pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-zec-trimmed-mean-be-above-43000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxzecmaxmon-zec-26may31-43000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Above $430.00 +36pp 25→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 84% probability that ZEC (Zcash) will trade above $400 by month-end, reflecting trader expectations for modest upside over the next four weeks. The current price level and historical volatility are the primary anchors: if ZEC appreciates steadily, the contract likely settles high; if it declines or consolidates below $400, it settles low. The main driver of directional movement will be broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin's performance, since altcoins typically move in correlation with BTC. The contract resolves on May 31, 2026, and market prices between now and then will reveal whether the 84% probability accurately captured the probability of ZEC remaining above this threshold.

### Key factors

- ZEC's current price relative to the $400 target and distance to that level
- Correlation patterns between ZEC and Bitcoin price movements during the resolution period
- Aggregate trading volume and liquidity for ZEC across major exchanges used in the trimmed mean calculation
- Historical volatility of ZEC over similar 4-week windows and whether May typically exhibits higher or lower price swings
- Regulatory or exchange-listing announcements affecting ZEC's trading conditions before May 31

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zecmaxmon-zec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zecmaxmon-zec

## License

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