# ZED FC vs. El Gouna SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zed-fc-vs-el-gouna-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:56.869Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 31% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $73K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Gouna | 4¢ | +3pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/zed-vs-el-gouna-winner-el-gouna-kalshi-kxegyplgame-26may03zedgou-gou |
| Zed | 25¢ | ±0 | $30K | kalshi | /markets/zed-vs-el-gouna-winner-zed-kalshi-kxegyplgame-26may03zedgou-zed |
| Tie | 69¢ | +3pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/zed-vs-el-gouna-winner-tie-kalshi-kxegyplgame-26may03zedgou-tie |
| ZED FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-1-polymarket-0x8b80ae2af203e0ef4f0ea26efcff647bf0569e88e3edf1dde5a699d91ccce3a6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x4cfceeb2e282654542fcf0438a423bd27939511bf6c04f55937570d41fa0151a |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x0691beea653f5d26062c1e4e041bc17fd36382e981f60cea70fc73c437f00c44 |
| Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-haras-el-polymarket-0x4ba70b99d6c04d9d57466bfed70d00dd35cdb8774eaaf928374090ce3685576a |
| O/U 1.5 | 61¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc61feed472ce62ecbd17a09e542ad2cc617cbcf9c5961e5133c512447990dbe0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xc3a5b71285575722eddbaa1c2c790d13df8f2da151ac2da7e3376f07143020a0 |
| ZED FC (-2.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-2-polymarket-0xc2e12e45eb33652b7356a4da63be0f63a2000e61b346907677c2d3b782bd531a |
| O/U 2.5 | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x446a8c525fe3ccc6d446be642ad5d1612a1df49df5a9822e24bf7add79d2ec1f |
| Haras El Hodood SC (-1.5) | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-haras-el-polymarket-0xb14e19c0f3d328077f0a6e1d801f80447eaafd6b56cef3999da5b672f70a075f |
| Draw (Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-draw-haras-el-hodood-polymarket-0xdb2cae6b3169273e9358fccd78061b7274fe45f9fa28bf6104d3244730dc15eb |
| ZED FC | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-zed-fc-polymarket-0xfc883f9333aa3741df42453255febef84977844c4c681bc4a475362af2b8e204 |
| Haras El Hodood SC | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-haras-el-hodood-sc-polymarket-0x521a87bdbc732c12349eb595f9cad4b7ac7026b556e99f3556ead29217fd6c62 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · El Gouna +3pp 19→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Tie +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tie +3pp 33→36¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zed-fc-vs-el-gouna-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zed-fc-vs-el-gouna-sc

## License

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