# ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC

> ZED FC leads at 39%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:50:24.136Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: ZED FC at 39%
- Runner-up: Ghazl El Mahalla SC at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZED FC | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-zed-fc-polymarket-0xa38a7280c8b7ff178491db5f4fce99efa4715678daf0cf194c401a795f4d5a43 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-polymarket-0xda47dae1c250d86937f0ecfc4640ef6c0a9e10450a0292109fbba8a02568d51f |
| Draw (ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-draw-zed-fc-vs-ghazl-polymarket-0x37cd71abfc9f8f5a2903c3b5b904eafde36058926f1121316d4376aec8ebe9ee |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ZED FC | Ghazl El Mahalla SC | Draw (ZED FC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 35 | 32 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 38 | 27 | 28 |
| 2026-05-09 | 35 | 26 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Ghazl El Mahalla SC −5pp 32→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · ZED FC +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · ZED FC −3pp 38→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Ghazl El Mahalla SC will win an upcoming match against ZED FC, with roughly a 31% chance assigned to Ghazl El Mahalla SC victory and 28% to a draw. The low trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) suggests limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads, making these prices less reliable than heavily-traded contracts. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will occur on a scheduled date. Key drivers of the current pricing likely include recent form, head-to-head history, team injury status, and home-field advantage. The primary catalyst resolving all uncertainty is the completion of the match itself, after which one outcome will determine the winner-take-all payout structure across both contracts.

### Key factors

- Both contracts show minimal 24-hour volume ($0 reported), indicating thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- Ghazl El Mahalla SC is priced at 30¢ while draws are at 28¢, leaving approximately 42% implied probability for ZED FC to win (100% minus both shown prices)
- No recent trades recorded on either contract, suggesting the market may be stale or participants are inactive
- The match outcome is binary and objectively verifiable once played, leaving no interpretation risk for contract settlement
- Current probability represents fewer than 10 basis points of market conviction, typical for low-volume emerging-market football betting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zed-fc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc

## License

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