# Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 12 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $174

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | 3¢ | −1pp | $174 | polymarket | /markets/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xc4c5d3fa06ad4df64a719c8f28a088dd965c2c0c46477f4edcd1ba138c7a8b81 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | 1 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be removed from the Ukrainian presidency through election, constitutional process, or other means within the next 31 days. The 3% level suggests participants view this as unlikely given Zelenskyy's current political position and the absence of immediate formal mechanisms for removal. The probability would likely shift based on changes in Ukraine's security situation, significant political developments, or unexpected constitutional crises. The main uncertainty driver is whether peace negotiations or military developments could trigger rapid political changes. Ukraine's next scheduled elections are in 2029, so any transition would require extraordinary circumstances—either a constitutional mechanism or a dramatic shift in political conditions that destabilizes his government.

### Key factors

- Ukraine's presidential term expires 2029; no regular elections scheduled before July 2026 that would change the presidency
- Zelenskyy's current approval ratings and political coalition strength relative to historical precedent for mid-term removal
- Status of ongoing military operations and whether major battlefield developments could trigger political instability
- Existence or activation of constitutional provisions allowing for presidential impeachment or recall within the next month
- Activity level and public statements from opposition political figures or military leadership suggesting removal scenarios

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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