# Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zhejiang-zhiye-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:12.369Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $379

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | +1pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x96f32023de6849c3033393333b77628088f3c2a0b52bb2acee6a5d9fdad471c5 |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 17¢ | −3pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-sh-polymarket-0xc09bd520a896897f49bb5fa423f6883e4ccf9ab3ab7c40b9c303e1c378bd6667 |
| Yunnan Yukun FC | 44¢ | −5pp | $21 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-yunnan-yukun-polymarket-0xf9ca096b6783bdd500542fe820f5090003208d58a40be876e0e6c2800fd79d93 |
| O/U 2.5 | 56¢ | — | $14 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 62¢ | — | $9 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| Shanghai Haigang FC | 63¢ | +5pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-sh-polymarket-0xa0abb958d6d1ad8643e3975bffb67432928aab4d1c4cd9d6162708a6a31e77bd |
| Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) | 21¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-dr-polymarket-0x774484a5523c6daa18660566db9b7f397aae877ed426140d624484440fd89dc5 |
| Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) | 25¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-draw-yunnan-y-polymarket-0xe3c328d24859ed8fef392dfccc259670187330299c27f2a046d2166ce150a6ac |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) | 24¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x84d2f4d92d3322ba03a66fed0f94a5fddcb2c8caf188d50579d9954b241f7aaf |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x5232d6fa8a8e9f2452bca62dd917ad0e4b6611c7e7a1c84c0e0fd3de65ba7de7 |
| O/U 1.5 | 79¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x06629a1f9fbaf58128dcb6ed3d69295f5a385fa5028fec4bd4b917f72d1ecd4f |
| O/U 3.5 | 40¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc0a65a196c5efad06f4fd9c9537c9e0c42121143372351476e84c69757d72079 |
| O/U 1.5 | 83¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x0d664c156c1d0ffcd41ba343827a9c3fbd37e809e10beaa7072cb9717e5658cb |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x9ba015e4d0a91abd09a2c87e3c8adac407897dd2879747c7ea008fb97a7ed92d |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 13¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x869a6a92cc25ea92e6a28ab539c75138d485be5003e26a811538a9060aa34522 |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x29a5a0f847cc8312325b63f05d16739d34d9ade41b595665b054c4580b96d6f3 |
| Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0xaa75cdf21ed9b67025fbf68eded13284a8f0767371dac862939d1b7915a98883 |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-zhejiang-zhiy-polymarket-0xd6f0e5edf9621f531aa8a14e8130445aaf8cc4c629fa15524dd67b91cbe256f3 |
| O/U 4.5 | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xf96b06a96a56cc877049ea991cdf589749ba161b2ba04ac8274f29b936ba6e4f |
| O/U 4.5 | 17¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x17c39c9adf6dd9741c50a44d6f7a31ea9f21381eff710ad23f3e705f49f3a344 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) +15pp 11→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) +10pp 14→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC −8pp 30→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) −8pp 29→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5) +6pp 17→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the aggregated market estimate that Zhejiang Zhiye FC will draw with Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC in an upcoming match. The 34% baseline sits between Kalshi's 29% and Polymarket's 35%, suggesting modest disagreement across venues about draw likelihood. Draw probabilities in football markets are typically driven by team form, tactical alignment, head-to-head history, and recent goal-scoring patterns. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty—once played, the outcome either occurs or it doesn't. Liquidity concentration on the draw contract ($171 in 24h volume) relative to outright win contracts suggests traders view a stalemate as a meaningful possibility, though Zhejiang's win contract (55¢) prices them as slight favorites overall. The 6-percentage-point spread between venues may reflect different trader bases or contract-specific liquidity effects rather than fundamental disagreement.

### Key factors

- Draw contract at 23¢ on Polymarket represents the isolated market price; if this reflects true probability, the aggregated 34% suggests other outcome combinations are being weighted differently across venues
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC win contract at 55¢ implies ~55% win probability for the home/favored side, leaving ~22% for Shenzhen and ~23% for draw—consistent with the draw probability range being estimated
- 24-hour volume concentration on the draw contract ($171) versus Shenzhen win contract ($58) indicates relative liquidity imbalance, which can distort pricing if one side has fewer traders
- The Polymarket-Kalshi gap of 6 percentage points is material for a 34% target; this suggests either different information access, trader composition, or contract design affecting how probabilities are distributed across outcomes
- Over/Under 2.5 goals at 60¢ suggests markets expect moderate scoring, relevant because low-scoring matches (0-0, 1-1) mechanically increase draw probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zhejiang-zhiye-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc

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