# Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kataller Toyama - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-kataller-toyama-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:24.828Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x487003b2e76ea36e00d19dcba6a1aee382087a80290c4b63b9459cc40c9c01fe |
| Kataller Toyama (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa18b4aeaa1b53e7d32e9fb7c48098547da2808cc3e72e8a48824b4fd2cd09f97 |
| Kataller Toyama (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa0c83bf391689cbf2fc8d3ad23a5796325c0208db0cd0105f360029a80332708 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xd108598c1ea2939d8259c617ee6673d2e2fed06854c85b27ae25acd6fedf62db |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x63efb6b309c0e7d7e5b59f8266e8ad812a54926b3184f322adf0dadefd240204 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa9a0068043b8f70080dad1cbc72d232ee9b5278c21d12cbe3171107996419c94 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4e73b51b79dca603f7d943b92db42ada44d72adcefe85b414f65f3ac4557c1f |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x7056f531d96671721afb19c5a038b9d973f574c79db67cf4d81f5a6b9448f07f |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x6b317dfbc8ea213e69eb04f70b5470bb2b39ea954d3ce3a10214bb69cde4c7ea |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbfea6dad5e7ed7b0b2f94653154a92cd2d1048f80c7ce84a2ad55a72533a16fe |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x09a5713e976a42b51c9992f3c64c2f6854558bba008fbd6efd206d9ee8ff4d01 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) | 35¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x082d3e01da8d253e5a272d4cd3690c1011213f63ab17c56889157506f1b09b88 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x8eeea8484902d5373d6d10e0a1cc2710d064e06bc320fd7bb91d69843b0a99fe |
| Ehime FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ehime-fc-polymarket-0x0e985275c0c2e6966e4be81bce336a8916c86bcc244221638503894d462c4a6f |
| Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-zweigen-polymarket-0xcc1cd0da1ada9e898f3a6f7c3821a2305017c4f2b0b0d67db686e4136260f8ca |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x881f458b76b6d561d43503c7cd0869a8463961c1787a43e52fbd1a62614fdeb3 |
| Ehime FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-ehime-fc-polymarket-0xc0f88a8a866adf763cd26f3f3fd753cebcb3240d6d84b426cc14c4ec5e0527d9 |
| Zweigen Kanazawa (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-more-markets-zweigen-polymarket-0x25a76fcb5026c75532955f569156a1110e82877e907a27712027d8ee8ce6ea06 |
| Zweigen Kanazawa | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-ehime-fc-zweigen-kanazawa-polymarket-0x7cd9702f51fe178be84da70c84495e696bda82966de84635a761f2c2f5c6f2a6 |
| Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-draw-kataller-polymarket-0x8f340f850f574528867aa136e288e6561722234fd71d8cbe2c6ba016cecc1ee8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kataller Toyama (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ehime FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 42% probability that the Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kataller Toyama match will have more goals than a specified threshold. The probability is moderately below even odds, suggesting the market expects a relatively low-scoring match under typical conditions. Zweigen Kanazawa's recent form and defensive strength appear to be pulling the probability down, while Kataller Toyama's attacking capability could support higher goal totals. The main catalyst is the match itself—scheduled gameplay will directly determine the final goal count and resolve all uncertainty around this outcome. Key supporting markets show broader skepticism toward high scoring, with related contracts suggesting defensive tendencies across comparable fixtures in this competition.

### Key factors

- Zweigen Kanazawa's recent defensive record and typical goal-conceding rate in J2 League play
- Kataller Toyama's average goals per match and attacking efficiency in current form
- The specific goal threshold embedded in the contract (not explicitly stated in available data)
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs if available
- Market depth and trading volume on related soccer markets, which at $0 24h volume indicates low liquidity and potential uncertainty in pricing

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/zweigen-kanazawa-vs-kataller-toyama-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=zweigen-kanazawa-vs-kataller-toyama-more-markets

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