How do I track 2026 elections prediction markets in real time?

SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the 2026 Elections index at /predictions/election-2026 bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

April 16, 2026·2026 Elections·Older · 1mo ago

Peru Election Shock: Aliaga Surges as Sánchez Palomino Collapses

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Peru's presidential election markets are experiencing one of the biggest single-day repricing events in the dataset. Rafael López Aliaga surged +16¢ to 35¢ for 2nd place in the first round, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino collapsed -11¢ to 18¢ as the overall winner market shifts dramatically.

Key takeaways

01
Peru's presidential election markets are experiencing one of the biggest single-day repricing events in the dataset.
02
Rafael López Aliaga surged +16¢ to 35¢ for 2nd place in the first round, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino collapsed -11¢ to 18¢ as the overall winner market shifts dramatically.
03
The Peru presidential election markets are undergoing a dramatic repricing today.

Full analysis

The Peru presidential election markets are undergoing a dramatic repricing today. Rafael López Aliaga is the clear beneficiary: his 2nd-place first-round contract (0xe8f8bc52bb22ad4c03) surged +16¢ to 35¢ on $493K in volume — the largest single-market move in the election category today. The runoff matchup contract for Aliaga + Fujimori (0x7f1813724d4e7a7e0f) is up +18¢ to 35¢.

Simultaneously, Roberto Sánchez Palomino is collapsing across multiple contracts: his overall winner market (0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7) is down -11¢ to 18¢ on $795K volume, his 2nd-place contract (0x432e3bff20596f36c2) is down -15¢ to 67¢, and his 3rd-place contract (0xcde3c15baa6087fd14) is up +22¢ to 37¢ — suggesting he's being repriced DOWN from 2nd to 3rd place.

Keiko Fujimori remains the heavy favorite to win overall at 65¢ (0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817) with tight 1¢ spread and $948K volume. The first-round winner Fujimori contract (0x92f925b3c8c2c17f2b) is at 99¢.

The first-round margin of victory for Fujimori is fascinating: the '<5%' contract (0x955ae81e512c67b768) crashed -46¢ to 12¢, while the '5%+' version (0xbfbe9c61a42b643902) surged +45¢ to 88¢ — the market is now pricing a decisive Fujimori first-round victory.

Key trade: The Fujimori-Aliaga runoff setup at 35¢ represents a playable scenario given both are rising, and the Sánchez Palomino 2nd place at 67¢ may still be too high given today's moves.