Fed September Meeting in Focus; 0 bps Hike at 49¢ on 351k Volume
September 2026 FOMC meeting markets show near 50/50 odds of a hike vs hold, with total volume over 400,000. The cumulative rate cut count market (KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC) prices zero cuts at 86¢.
Key takeaways
- 01
September 2026 FOMC meeting markets show near 50/50 odds of a hike vs hold, with total volume over 400,000.
- 02
The cumulative rate cut count market (KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC) prices zero cuts at 86¢.
- 03
Federal Reserve markets are heavily traded today, with the September 2026 meeting being the focal point.
Full analysis
Federal Reserve markets are heavily traded today, with the September 2026 meeting being the focal point. The market for a 0 bps hike (hold) is at 49¢ on volume of 351,339, while a 25 bps hike is also at 49¢ but on lower volume (64,945). The probability of a cut remains very low (KXFEDDECISION-26SEP- cut 25bps at 1¢). The KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC contract shows a 86¢ probability of zero cuts in 2026, suggesting the market sees the Fed on hold for the rest of the year. However, the KXFED series shows the upper bound of fed funds rate at 3.75% is 51¢ (vol 9425), indicating some uncertainty. Traders should watch the July CPI release (KXCPI-26JUL) and the GDP report (KXGDP-27JAN28) for confirmation of the economic trajectory.
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sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP- | sf query "fed funds rate September"