Iran Regime Stability Markets Active as Conflict Enters New Phase
With the US-Iran conflict resolution markets already showing 100¢ (resolved), the action has shifted to downstream consequences: regime fall, leadership change, and Kharg Island control. Iran leadership change by May 31 gained +5¢ to 19¢, and Iran coup attempt by June 30 sits at 14¢ (+1¢).
Key takeaways
- 01
With the US-Iran conflict resolution markets already showing 100¢ (resolved), the action has shifted to downstream consequences: regime fall, leadership change, and Kharg Island control.
- 02
Iran leadership change by May 31 gained +5¢ to 19¢, and Iran coup attempt by June 30 sits at 14¢ (+1¢).
- 03
The Iran-US conflict has shifted from the initial strike phase to the consequences phase in prediction markets.
Full analysis
The Iran-US conflict has shifted from the initial strike phase to the consequences phase in prediction markets. The primary conflict resolution markets (0x8183a221622f2d5d2b at 100¢, 0xd73f60114a0e7169a5 at 100¢) have resolved, meaning the initial conflict episode ended. Now traders are focused on second-order effects. The Iranian regime fall by May 31 market (0x789c947a9415600d30) is at 4¢ (+1¢) with nearly $1M in volume — this represents the near-term collapse scenario. The June 30 regime fall market (0x9352c559e9648ab4ca) is at 9¢ (+1¢) with $304k volume. The Iran leadership change by May 31 (0x2f6a547524c1d290f8) surged to 19¢ (+5¢, $53k volume), suggesting meaningful probability of government transition even without full regime collapse. Kharg Island — Iran's critical oil export hub — has a 'no longer under Iranian control by May 31' market (0xa1d97efb8a19de58d9) at 14¢ (+1¢). The US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 (0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6) sits at 11¢ (-2¢). The Iran nuclear deal before 2027 market (0x182390641d3b1b47cc) is at 68¢ (-2¢), showing that despite the conflict, a deal remains the base case. The US invasion of Iran before 2027 (0x5db999fad322cea291) is at 32¢ (+1¢). Kalshi's KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT shows nuclear deal probability between 5-67¢ across different time horizons. For traders: the Kharg Island control market is the most direct oil infrastructure play, and the leadership change markets offer high asymmetric returns if the regime shows signs of instability.
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sf query "Iran regime fall leadership change"