Cleveland wins by over 1.5 points

The yield curve displays a distinctly flat structure across both tenor buckets, with all markets clustering at tau=15d and tau=16d. Within the 15-day bucket, YES probabilities range from 2.0% at the tail (SAS25) to 53.0% at the peak (SAS1), creating substantial dispersion that reflects different outcome scenarios rather than a traditional term structure. The cheapest YES probabilities concentrate in the extreme tail outcomes, with multiple markets priced at 2-4%, while the modal probabilities cluster around 30-43% across the mid-range markets. The tau=16d bucket (NYK-CLE matchup) shows nearly identical probability distribution to its 15-day counterpart, with peak probabilities at 42% (CLE1) declining to 3% (CLE21), suggesting the market perceives negligible additional information value from the single-day extension. The flatness of this curve indicates the market views the event resolution as imminent and largely predetermined, with minimal expectation that new information will materially shift outcome probabilities over the next 24 hours. The concentration of trading volume in high-probability markets like SAS2 ($152k) and OKC4 ($11.6k) suggests strong conviction around specific mid-range outcomes rather than uncertainty about timing. The curve's structure implies the market is pricing a discrete event with fixed resolution mechanics rather than one subject to temporal drift—traders are essentially betting on which specific outcome materializes within the fixed window, not when it might occur. The near-identical probability distributions across the single-day tenor gap reinforces this view of event resolution as a point-in-time phenomenon rather than a process unfolding over multiple days.