International relations, conflicts, trade wars, and global events.
The Geopolitics Desk currently displays a market landscape heavily dominated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which anchors both the Prediction Events and the highest-volume single markets. Trading activity is concentrated in a few headline events, with significant liquidity disparities. The $71.26M total volume is heavily skewed, with the top market alone ('Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?') accounting for ~88% of all desk volume ($62.46M). This indicates a market currently focused on a single protracted conflict, with secondary attention on US-Venezuela tensions and Israel-Gaza/Lebanon. A notable theme is the prevalence of short-term, date-specific binary events (e.g., strikes on specific days) alongside broader annual outcome markets.
Last updated: 12/23/2025, 12:02:07 AM
This is the elephant in the room. A 1.5% YES price signals a market assigning a very low probability to a ceasefire in 2025. The enormous volume suggests this is the primary consensus-building vehicle for the conflict, but the low price may indicate entrenched pessimism or a market overly influenced by current battlefield stalemate dynamics.
The high resolution price (100% YES) indicates this specific event is considered virtually certain by the market, likely due to the ongoing nature of the conflict. The relatively low volume ($0.06M) suggests it was a near-certainty when the market was created, attracting little speculative interest.
EU decision deadline on Russian assets
Specific Israel-Lebanon strike resolution date
Leadership health/ stability rumors
US presidential transition & early policy moves