Track developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict through 2026. As the war enters its fourth year, markets are pricing ceasefire scenarios, territorial outcomes, and reconstruction timelines. ## Key Scenarios - **Ceasefire negotiations** - Probability and terms - **Territorial control** - Front line movements - **Western support** - Aid packages and sustainability - **Sanctions regime** - Enforcement and evasion ## Market Focus - Energy prices and European supply - Defense sector implications - Reconstruction opportunities - Sanctions impact on global trade
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