Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: 2025 Begins with Record Volume on Political and Crypto Bets
Week 1, 2025 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Market Overview
Prediction markets opened 2025 with a clear focus on long-duration, high-stakes binary events. Trading was concentrated on political risk, cryptocurrency volatility, and macroeconomic stability, with over $62M in volume across the top ten markets alone. The high liquidity in year-long questions suggests traders are establishing core strategic positions for the year ahead.
Top Movers
| Market | Venue | Change | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump out this year? | Kalshi | +5.0% | 5000.0% |
| Will there be a recession in 2025? | Kalshi | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025? | Kalshi | 3.0% | 1100.0% |
Volume Leaders
- Donald Trump out this year? (Kalshi): $9.76M
- How high will Bitcoin get this year? (Kalshi): $9.66M
- How high will Ethereum get this year? (Kalshi): $7.84M
- 💹 Trump exit probability deadlocked at 50.0% amid $9.76M in trading volume.
- 💹 Bitcoin price range markets attracted over $20M in combined volume, with a cautious tilt toward downside protection.
- ✅ No major markets resolved this week; all top volume markets are year-long propositions.
- 2025-01-05: December Jobs Report (NFP)
- Ongoing in January: Start of new U.S. Congress session and committee hearings
- N/A: Potential for winter escalation or diplomatic developments
Key Highlights
Desk Breakdown
Macro & Rates Desk 🟢
The market is overwhelmingly pricing in a 'soft landing' scenario for 2025, with a recession deemed highly unlikely (1%). Fed rate cut bets are subdued, and Powell's job security is perceived as solid, signaling strong confidence in the current policy trajectory.
Crypto Markets & Regulation Desk ⚪
Massive speculation on Bitcoin's price range dominated volume, but conviction on extreme highs is low. Significant volume on the downside bucket suggests traders are seriously hedging a potential low. The 11% probability for $100k Bitcoin by year-end reflects cautious optimism rather than euphoria.
Elections Desk ⚪
The sole active market, 'Donald Trump out this year?', traded with a staggering $9.76M in volume, precisely balanced at 50/50. This immense liquidity and binary uncertainty indicate the market views a major political shift as a central risk for 2025, attracting equal parts speculation and hedging.
Geopolitics & Policy Desks ⚪
AI Regulation and the Ukraine-Russia Conflict are key active events, though their volume did not crack the top 10 this week. The focus remains on potential binary shocks rather than incremental developments in these ongoing narratives.
Looking Ahead
Key events to watch next week: