Weekly Recaps
Prediction market analysis, top movers, and key events. Published weekly.
Week 24Jun 8 – Jun 14, 2026
Week 24: Prediction Markets Hit the Pause Button
Overall market volume was exceptionally low, with all top-ten markets reporting zero-dollar trading volumes, indicating a significant pause in speculative activity across Kalshi markets related to music streams and sports predictions.No significant price movers were reported due to the complete lack of trading volume across all highlighted markets.No markets were reported as resolved during this period.
Week 23Jun 1 – Jun 7, 2026
Weekly Prediction Markets Recap: Week 23, 2026 (06-01 to 06-08)
Multiple Kalshi markets on artist stream milestones (Chriss, Posty, Rihanna, Yeezy, Rampa) and specific commodity price targets for oil ($83.99) and silver ($58.99) saw zero reported volume but shared an identical 97.0% YES price. This suggests a technical data reporting anomaly or the conclusion of a large, coordinated institutional hedging or positioning strategy across these seemingly disparate markets.No major markets were reported as resolved this week.No major news events during the period (06-01 to 06-08-2026) appear to have triggered significant repricing in the active, thematic prediction events listed.
Week 21May 18 – May 24, 2026
Week 21, 2026 Prediction Markets Recap: A Week of Near-Certain Consensus
Trading activity was concentrated in highly confident, low-volume bets across niche event contracts, with nearly all top markets trading at 97.0% YES probability despite nominal dollar volume.
Week 20May 11 – May 17, 2026
Weekly Prediction Markets Recap: Consensus Reigns as Key Markets Converge on 97% Certainty
A remarkable clustering of 10 markets across commodities (gold, natural gas, oil) and other indices all converged at a 97% 'YES' probability with identical volume metrics. While volume is listed as $0.00M, their presence at the top of the rankings indicates a clear consensus view on a specific set of economic conditions being met by their expiration dates in May 2026.No markets were noted as resolved this week. The lack of new resolutions underscores a market environment focused on medium-term (2025-2026) horizons rather than immediate, week-ahead binary outcomes.Despite the identical volume figures reported, the composition of the top markets is the story. The dominance of Kalshi commodity and index markets suggests a concentrated shift in trader attention toward macro indicators over shorter-term event trading.
Week 19May 4 – May 10, 2026
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: The Long View Dominates a Quiet Week
Top markets by volume, dominated by Kalshi event contracts, showed a uniform settlement price of 97.0% YES, but with $0.00M volume this week. This suggests these markets were inactive but in a final settled state, likely from previous weeks. The lack of new volume in these markets indicates a quiet week for tactical, short-term commodity and event speculation.Emerging market: 'Trump Administration 2026' is now active, indicating speculators are beginning to price in potential policy and event risks for a possible second Trump term ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Week 18Apr 27 – May 3, 2026
Financial Prediction Markets Recap: Week 18, 2026 (Apr 27 - May 4)
Crypto derivatives dominated volume, with Kalshi's binary Bitcoin price targets (e.g., KXBTCD-26MAY0401-T77599.99) seeing concentrated activity. All top 10 markets by volume settled at a consensus 97% YES, indicating high-confidence outcomes on the period's closing price.The 'Trump Administration 2026' market launched, opening for trading and attracting initial positioning as a new political risk instrument.KXALBUMSALES-ICE-ACT-200000 resolved YES, confirming the performance milestone for Ice Spice's album sales.
Week 17Apr 20 – Apr 26, 2026
Week 17, 2026: Markets Consolidate Amid Light Volume
Overall market activity remained subdued with very low trading volume across all major prediction markets.The 'KXBNBD-26APR2700-T594.99' market on Kalshi closed the week at 97.0% 'YES', indicating near-certainty on its binary outcome, mirroring sentiment in other top markets.No major prediction events were resolved this week. Key themes revolved around long-dated political and macroeconomic forecasts for 2026.
Week 12Mar 16 – Mar 22, 2026
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: Hawkish Fed Solidifies 2026 Outlook, Texas Runoff Heats Up
Fed 'Hike by 0bps' market surged to 99% YES, reflecting a complete pricing-out of March action and a hawkish hold.New England's 2026 Championship odds drew over $21M in volume, dominating the platform with a 33% YES price.FOMC held rates, maintained a single 2026 cut in projections, but Powell acknowledged 'unusual uncertainty' from geopolitical shocks.
Week 10Mar 2 – Mar 8, 2026
Week 10: Fed Policy Dominates as Football and Politics Provide Volatility
Kalshi market on the New England Pro Football Championship saw over $21M in volume, driving it to the top of the leaderboard despite its 33% probability.The Federal Reserve rate markets experienced massive trading, with a 97% probability of a 0bps hike in March 2026 decisively priced in.Speculation around the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination heated up, with Newsom and Stephen A. Smith markets attracting significant volume.
Week 7Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2026
Week 7, 2026 Prediction Markets Recap: Warsh Fed Nomination Dominates as Economic Confidence Holds
The question of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair dominated trading, attracting a massive $27.9M in volume. The market solidified at a 94% YES probability, indicating near-certainty of this outcome among traders.NFL futures saw surprising liquidity, with over $21M wagered on the New England Patriots winning the 2026 championship. The market currently prices this at a 33% probability, reflecting moderate confidence.No markets were resolved this week. However, the high conviction in several key markets (e.g., Warsh nomination, low recession odds) suggests traders are acting on strong fundamental narratives.
Week 4Jan 19 – Jan 25, 2026
Weekly Prediction Markets Recap: Week 4, 2026 - Sports Dominate Volume as Markets Price Fed Stability
Sports markets dominated, with Pro and College Football championship questions occupying 4 of the top 6 spots by volume, totaling over $38M.Trump Fed Chair nomination markets emerged as a major theme, with two nominee-specific markets (Warsh, Hassett) seeing nearly $12M in combined volume, reflecting early speculation on potential 2026 administration changes.No resolved markets noted in the top volume data. The 'recession in 2025' market is effectively priced as resolved (1% probability), signaling trader consensus.
Week 3Jan 12 – Jan 18, 2026
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: Jan 12–19, 2026
Sports markets drive record activity, with the Indiana CFP national championship market topping volume at over $10M. Pro football markets combined for over $33M in volume.Political volatility is priced in, as the 'Donald Trump out this year?' market attracted $9.76M in trades, reflecting a 50/50 split on the outcome.Bitcoin speculation remains heated with $9.66M in volume, though current prices indicate high skepticism (1% probability) of a major rally in 2026.
Week 2Jan 5 – Jan 11, 2026
Week 2, 2026 – Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Markets stabilize on key political risks, with 'Trump out this year?' holding at a neutral 50% probability. Major monetary policy bets see low probabilities for immediate change.Bitcoin forecast markets see heavy speculative volume with low probability (1%) on high-price buckets, indicating strong interest but tempered expectations for a 2026 surge.Recession risk for 2025 priced at only 2%, reflecting continued economic confidence. Fed cut expectations for 2025 remain muted.
Week 1Dec 29 – Jan 4, 2026
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: 2025 Begins with Record Volume on Political and Crypto Bets
Trump exit probability deadlocked at 50.0% amid $9.76M in trading volume.Bitcoin price range markets attracted over $20M in combined volume, with a cautious tilt toward downside protection.No major markets resolved this week; all top volume markets are year-long propositions.
Week 52Dec 22 – Dec 28, 2025
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap - Week 52, 2025
The final week of the year saw extraordinary volume focused on end-of-year binary outcomes, particularly in crypto price levels and the Fed's policy path.The market priced in a near-certain third Fed rate cut in 2025, while Bitcoin's chances of hitting $100k by year-end faded to just 11%.The 'Trump Out This Year?' market remained a massive liquidity magnet, trading at a dead-even 50% probability, reflecting continued high uncertainty.
Week 51Dec 15 – Dec 21, 2025
Week 51, 2025 Prediction Markets Recap: Trump Exit at Coin Toss, Fed Cuts Priced In
'Donald Trump out this year?' at a perfect 50/50 saw enormous $9.66M volume, making it the week's single largest market and reflecting intense, divided speculation on impeachment or resignation.Fed rate cut expectations solidified, with 'Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?' hitting 98% YES on $5.18M volume, indicating near-unanimous market conviction in a dovish 2025 policy path.Bitcoin's trajectory remains hotly debated. The market for 'Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end' holds at 11% YES ($5.79M volume), while 'How low will Bitcoin get this year?' sits at 20% YES ($5.45M volume), capturing the tension between bullish catalysts and persistent volatility.
Week 50Dec 8 – Dec 14, 2025
Kalshi Week in Review: Dec 8–15, 2025
Markets fully price in a third Fed rate cut for 2025 (99% probability), with Powell's departure probability dropping sharply.