09. Weekly Digest
Weekly Recaps
// Weekly prediction markets summaries with top movers.
// Key events and market analysis for the week ahead.
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2026 Archive
WEEK 7|FEB 9-15, 2026
Week 7, 2026 Prediction Markets Recap: Warsh Fed Nomination Dominates as Economic Confidence Holds
The question of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair dominated trading, attracting a massive $27.9M in volume. The market solidified at a 94% YES probability, indicating near-certainty of this outcome among traders.NFL futures saw surprising liquidity, with over $21M wagered on the New England Patriots winning the 2026 championship. The market currently prices this at a 33% probability, reflecting moderate confidence.No markets were resolved this week. However, the high conviction in several key markets (e.g., Warsh nomination, low recession odds) suggests traders are acting on strong fundamental narratives.
WEEK 4|JAN 19-25, 2026
Weekly Prediction Markets Recap: Week 4, 2026 - Sports Dominate Volume as Markets Price Fed Stability
Sports markets dominated, with Pro and College Football championship questions occupying 4 of the top 6 spots by volume, totaling over $38M.Trump Fed Chair nomination markets emerged as a major theme, with two nominee-specific markets (Warsh, Hassett) seeing nearly $12M in combined volume, reflecting early speculation on potential 2026 administration changes.No resolved markets noted in the top volume data. The 'recession in 2025' market is effectively priced as resolved (1% probability), signaling trader consensus.+1 MORE
WEEK 3|JAN 12-18, 2026
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: Jan 12–19, 2026
Sports markets drive record activity, with the Indiana CFP national championship market topping volume at over $10M. Pro football markets combined for over $33M in volume.Political volatility is priced in, as the 'Donald Trump out this year?' market attracted $9.76M in trades, reflecting a 50/50 split on the outcome.Bitcoin speculation remains heated with $9.66M in volume, though current prices indicate high skepticism (1% probability) of a major rally in 2026.+2 MORE
WEEK 2|JAN 5-11, 2026
Week 2, 2026 – Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Markets stabilize on key political risks, with 'Trump out this year?' holding at a neutral 50% probability. Major monetary policy bets see low probabilities for immediate change.Bitcoin forecast markets see heavy speculative volume with low probability (1%) on high-price buckets, indicating strong interest but tempered expectations for a 2026 surge.Recession risk for 2025 priced at only 2%, reflecting continued economic confidence. Fed cut expectations for 2025 remain muted.
2025 Archive
WEEK 1|DEC 29 - JAN 4, 2025
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: 2025 Begins with Record Volume on Political and Crypto Bets
Trump exit probability deadlocked at 50.0% amid $9.76M in trading volume.Bitcoin price range markets attracted over $20M in combined volume, with a cautious tilt toward downside protection.No major markets resolved this week; all top volume markets are year-long propositions.
WEEK 52|DEC 22-28, 2025
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap - Week 52, 2025
The final week of the year saw extraordinary volume focused on end-of-year binary outcomes, particularly in crypto price levels and the Fed's policy path.The market priced in a near-certain third Fed rate cut in 2025, while Bitcoin's chances of hitting $100k by year-end faded to just 11%.The 'Trump Out This Year?' market remained a massive liquidity magnet, trading at a dead-even 50% probability, reflecting continued high uncertainty.
WEEK 51|DEC 15-21, 2025
Week 51, 2025 Prediction Markets Recap: Trump Exit at Coin Toss, Fed Cuts Priced In
'Donald Trump out this year?' at a perfect 50/50 saw enormous $9.66M volume, making it the week's single largest market and reflecting intense, divided speculation on impeachment or resignation.Fed rate cut expectations solidified, with 'Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?' hitting 98% YES on $5.18M volume, indicating near-unanimous market conviction in a dovish 2025 policy path.Bitcoin's trajectory remains hotly debated. The market for 'Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end' holds at 11% YES ($5.79M volume), while 'How low will Bitcoin get this year?' sits at 20% YES ($5.45M volume), capturing the tension between bullish catalysts and persistent volatility.
WEEK 50|DEC 8-14, 2025
Kalshi Week in Review: Dec 8–15, 2025
Markets fully price in a third Fed rate cut for 2025 (99% probability), with Powell's departure probability dropping sharply.