09. Weekly Digest
Weekly Recaps
// Weekly prediction markets summaries with top movers.
// Key events and market analysis for the week ahead.
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2025 Archive
WEEK 1|DEC 29 - JAN 4, 2025
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap: 2025 Begins with Record Volume on Political and Crypto Bets
Trump exit probability deadlocked at 50.0% amid $9.76M in trading volume.Bitcoin price range markets attracted over $20M in combined volume, with a cautious tilt toward downside protection.No major markets resolved this week; all top volume markets are year-long propositions.
WEEK 52|DEC 22-28, 2025
Prediction Markets Weekly Recap - Week 52, 2025
The final week of the year saw extraordinary volume focused on end-of-year binary outcomes, particularly in crypto price levels and the Fed's policy path.The market priced in a near-certain third Fed rate cut in 2025, while Bitcoin's chances of hitting $100k by year-end faded to just 11%.The 'Trump Out This Year?' market remained a massive liquidity magnet, trading at a dead-even 50% probability, reflecting continued high uncertainty.
WEEK 51|DEC 15-21, 2025
Week 51, 2025 Prediction Markets Recap: Trump Exit at Coin Toss, Fed Cuts Priced In
'Donald Trump out this year?' at a perfect 50/50 saw enormous $9.66M volume, making it the week's single largest market and reflecting intense, divided speculation on impeachment or resignation.Fed rate cut expectations solidified, with 'Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?' hitting 98% YES on $5.18M volume, indicating near-unanimous market conviction in a dovish 2025 policy path.Bitcoin's trajectory remains hotly debated. The market for 'Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end' holds at 11% YES ($5.79M volume), while 'How low will Bitcoin get this year?' sits at 20% YES ($5.45M volume), capturing the tension between bullish catalysts and persistent volatility.
WEEK 50|DEC 8-14, 2025
Kalshi Week in Review: Dec 8–15, 2025
Markets fully price in a third Fed rate cut for 2025 (99% probability), with Powell's departure probability dropping sharply.