Kalshi Week in Review: Dec 8–15, 2025

Week 50, 2025 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap

Market Overview

Week 50 saw over $60M in trading volume, dominated by high-stakes political and crypto speculation. The narrative was one of diverging certainties: extreme conviction in Fed policy, high volatility in Bitcoin price targets, and continued intense focus on White House stability.

Top Movers

Volume Leaders

• Donald Trump out this year? (Kalshi): $9.66M
• How high will Bitcoin get this year? (Kalshi): $8.67M

Key Highlights

• 💹 Markets fully price in a third Fed rate cut for 2025 (99% probability), with Powell's departure probability dropping sharply.

Desk Breakdown

Macro & Rates Desk 🟢

Markets are nearly certain (99%) of a third 2025 rate cut, with Chair Powell's departure probability collapsing to just 1%. This suggests traders see a dovish Fed staying on course through year-end.

Crypto Desk 🟡

Contradictory signals: While the chance of Bitcoin hitting $100K by year-end rose to 13%, traders simultaneously priced a 38% chance Bitcoin hits a yearly low. Massive volumes indicate intense positioning around extreme price outcomes.

Elections Desk ⚪

The 'Trump out this year' market stabilized at 50%, absorbing nearly $10M in volume. The 2028 Presidential Election market remains active but saw lower relative volume this week as focus remained on immediate White House stability.

Policy & Tech Desk ⚪

AI Regulation and Crypto Regulation markets are active but quieter this week, overshadowed by macro and political volatility.

Geopolitics Desk ⚪

Ukraine-Russia Conflict market remains active but did not crack the top 10 volume leaders, suggesting a stable, entrenched front with no major perceived near-term catalyst.

Looking Ahead

Key events to watch next week:

• Dec 16–22, 2025: FOMC Meeting Aftermath
• Ongoing: Year-end Bitcoin price volatility