Week 51, 2025 Prediction Markets Recap: Trump Exit at Coin Toss, Fed Cuts Priced In

Week 51, 2025 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap

Market Overview

Prediction markets in Week 51 were dominated by political risk and monetary policy certainty. The staggering volume in the Trump exit market ($9.66M) underscores its status as the year's ultimate binary risk event. Meanwhile, the Fed narrative has largely been settled for 2025, with attention perhaps shifting to 2026 leadership. Crypto markets saw heavy trading across multiple price-level markets, but regulatory news (OCC approvals) may be a more significant long-term catalyst than short-term price moves.

Top Movers

Volume Leaders

• Donald Trump out this year? (Kalshi): $0.00M
• How high will Bitcoin get this year? (various buckets) (Kalshi): $0.00M
• How high will Ethereum get this year? (Kalshi): $0.00M

Key Highlights

• 📈 'Donald Trump out this year?' at a perfect 50/50 saw enormous $9.66M volume, making it the week's single largest market and reflecting intense, divided speculation on impeachment or resignation.
• 📈 Fed rate cut expectations solidified, with 'Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?' hitting 98% YES on $5.18M volume, indicating near-unanimous market conviction in a dovish 2025 policy path.
• 📈 Bitcoin's trajectory remains hotly debated. The market for 'Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end' holds at 11% YES ($5.79M volume), while 'How low will Bitcoin get this year?' sits at 20% YES ($5.45M volume), capturing the tension between bullish catalysts and persistent volatility.

Desk Breakdown

Elections Desk ⚪

All eyes on Trump's 2024 exit probability, sitting exactly at 50%—a pure coin toss amid impeachment whispers and market uncertainty. No active events here yet, just the shadow of 2028.

Macro & Rates Desk 🟢

The Fed outlook is crystalizing: A 98% chance for 3 rate cuts this year dominates, while Powell's departure before 2026 is seen as a remote 1% possibility. Markets have priced in a dovish pivot.

Policy & Tech Desk 🟢

Crypto regulatory landscape shifts with OCC's conditional approval for five major firms' national trust charters. AI event remains active alongside crypto, but no major price moves tracked this week.

Geopolitics Desk ⚪

Right-wing shift in Chile's election and targeted Venezuela sanctions reflect ongoing regional volatility. Ukraine-Russia conflict remains an active event with no significant market resolution this week.

Looking Ahead

Key events to watch next week:

• 2025-12-22: Fed Chair Powell end-of-year press conference
• Ongoing: Reaction to OCC trust charter approvals and Bitcoin ETF flow data
• Ongoing: Political developments and impeachment inquiry progress